Business Monitor International


North Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 14 April 2014

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
North Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Other than Libya, which continues to feel the effects of the 2011 civil war, competition is strong in North Africa's   mobile markets. While there remains some growth potential in the region's mobile markets, BMI believes mobile data and increased liberalisation in the wireline segment will be the major drivers of growth throughout our forecast period to 2018. Morocco's regulator has given incumbent Maroc Télécom until August to impleme nt local loop unbundling, Algérie Télécom has reduced the price of broadband services to respond to the launch of 3G services in H114 and Tunisie Télécom has ramped up investment in its wireline and mobile data networks. Meanwhile, Etisalat has completed its acquisition of a 53% stake in Maroc T élécom. BMI expects these developments to result in an acceleration of convergence strategies, as operators look beyond the mobile voice market for revenue and subscriptions growth.

Key Data

  • Data from the ARPT showed there were 3.5mn mobile subscriptions in Algeria at the end of 2013, around 200,000 higher than BMI's estimate owing to strong growth in state-owned Mobilis' network. We forecast this will rise to 40.7mn in 2014. 3G growth will be fairly limited in 2014, as licences were only offered at the end of 2013. 

  • New regulator data in Tunisia revealed much higher 3G growth than has been previously believed. INT data shows there were 3.588mn 3G subscriptions in Tunisia in March 2014, up 21.3% q-o-q and 96.5% from a year earlier.

  • Heated competition between Morocco's three mobile operators sustained strong growth in the mobile and 3G markets in Q114, with net quarterly additions of nearly a million and more than 500,000, respectively. We forecast the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 49.2mn and 3G subscriptions to reach 9.0mn by 2018.

Key Trends & Developments

In Q114 the INT released a breakdown of dedicated 3G dongle subscriptions and voice and data 3G subscriptions, which showed...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile
8
Wireline
10
Industry Forecast
12
Algeria
12
Table: Algeria Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts
12
Libya
13
Table: Libya Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts
13
Morocco
14
Table: Morocco Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts
14
Tunisia
16
Table: Tunisia Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
17
Middle East and North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
17
Industry Rewards
17
Country Rewards
18
Industry Risks
18
Country Risk
19
Table: MENA Q213 RRR Table
19
North Africa
20
Market Overview
23
Algeria
23
Key Developments
23
Mobile
23
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q412
27
Table: Algeria - Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2011-2012 (user/month)
28
3G
28
Mobile Operator Data
30
Table: Mobilis
30
Table: Djezzy
31
Table: Nedjma
31
Fixed Line
33
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2003-2011 ('000)
33
Broadband
36
Government Broadband Plans
37
Libya
40
Key Developments
40
Mobile
40
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q412
41
A Third Operator
41
Fixed Line
43
Broadband
43
Morocco
45
Key Developments
45
Mobile
45
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q412
47
3G
48
Mobile Operator Data
51
Table: Maroc Telecom
51
Table: M-ditel
51
Table: Wana
52
Fixed Line
52
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2011-2012
54
Broadband
55
Tunisia
58
Key Developments
58
Mobile
58
Table: Tunisia - Mobile Market, Q412
60
3G
61
Mobile Operator Data
64
Table: Tunisie T-l-com
64
Table: Tunisiana
64
Table: Orange Tunisia
65
Fixed Line
65
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2011-2012
66
Broadband
67
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2011-2012
67
Telecoms - Mobile VAS In Africa
68
Indigenous VAS Take Centre Stage
69
Global Content Providers Adapt To Gain Relevance
70
Telecoms Crossovers Still In Play
71
Outlook Is Positive But Not Without Risk
72
Regulatory Development
74
Regulatory Overview
74
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
74
Algeria
74
Libya
75
Morocco
77
Tunisia
78
Competitive Landscape
79
Table: Key Players - North Africa Telecoms Sector
79
Company Profile
80
Alg-rie T-l-com
80
Maroc T-l-com
83
Tunisie T-l-com
86
Orascom Telecom
89
Wataniya Telecom
91
Regional Overview
93
Altobridge
93
Network Solutions
93
Deployments
94
Table: Key Altobridge Commercial Deployments
94
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
97
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
98
Table: Ratings Indicators
99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
100

The North Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, Tunisian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc