Business Monitor International


North Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 20 January 2014

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
North Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View :

Other than in Libya, which continues to feel the effects of the 2011 civil war, there is strong competition in North Africa's mobile markets. While there remains growth potential across North Africa's mobi le markets, BMI believes increased liberalisation, in some cases, and investment in fixed and mobile broadband markets will drive growth in that segment. Morocco's regulator plans to impose fixed infrastr ucture sharing regulation, Algerie Télécom has announced plans to launch fixed wireless 4G LTE in H114 to compete with mobile operators' 3G services and Tunisie Télécom awarded Alcatel-Lucent a contract to improve access speeds over its copper cable network . Meanwhile, Libya recruited the ITU's help to build up its ICT sector, including setting up a regulatory framework, which may speed up the licensing process for a planned third operator. With most markets set to reach mobile saturation within our forecast period, BMI believes the broadband market will provide important long term opportunities for subscriptions and revenue growth.

Key Data

  • Strong subscriptions growth continued in Q413 and we estimate Algeria's mobile market reached 39.3mn subscriptions by the end of the year. We forecast this to rise to 44.3mn by 2018. 3G growth will be fairly limited in 2014, as licences were only offered at the end of 2013.

  • We revised our data for Tunisia to reflect data from the regulator, INT. The mobile market reached 12.712mn subscriptions in 2013, which we forecast to rise to 13.3mn by 2018.

  • Heated competition between Morocco's three mobile operators led to strong growth in the mobile and 3G markets, as subscriptions reached 42.4mn and 11.6mn, respectively. We forecast the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 49.2mn and 3G subscriptions to reach 9.0mn by 2018.

Key Trends & Developments

State-owned incumbent operator Algérie Télécom plans to launch fixed wireless LTE services in May 2014, according to a state by...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile
9
Wireline
11
Industry Forecast
13
Algeria
13
Table: Algeria Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
13
Libya
14
Table: Libya Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
14
Morocco
16
Table: Morocco Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
16
Tunisia
17
Table: Tunisia Telecoms - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Industry Rewards
19
Country Rewards
20
Industry Risks
21
Country Risks
22
Table: MENA Risks/Rewards Ratings, Q1 2014
23
Market Overview
24
Algeria
24
Key Developments
24
Mobile
24
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q213
27
Table: Algeria - Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2011-2013 (user/month)
29
3G
29
Table: Algeria Exclusive 3G Province Groupings
30
Mobile Operator Data
31
Table: Mobilis
31
Table: Djezzy
32
Table: Ooredoo
33
Fixed Line
34
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2003-2011 ('000)
34
Broadband
35
Government Broadband Plans
36
Libya
38
Key Developments
38
Mobile
38
Table: Libya Mobile Market, September 2013
40
A Third Operator
40
Fixed Line
42
Broadband
42
Morocco
43
Key Developments
43
Mobile
44
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q213
46
3G
47
Mobile Operator Data
50
Table: Maroc T-l-com
50
Table: M-ditel
50
Table: Wana
51
Fixed Line
51
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2011-2013
52
Broadband
53
Tunisia
56
Key Developments
56
Mobile
56
Table: Tunisia - Mobile Market, Q313
58
Mobile Operator Data
62
Table: Tunisie T-l-com
62
Table: Tunisiana
62
Table: Orange Tunisia
63
Fixed Line
63
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2011-2013
64
Broadband
64
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2011-2013
65
MENA Mobile Content
67
Data Networks And Devices Drive Mobile VAS
67
OTT Services Increase
68
Operators Give Competition A Go
68
M-Commerce Takes Off
69
Operators Look To Non-Voice Corporate Solutions
70
Regulatory Development
72
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
72
Algeria
72
Table: Key Developments
74
Libya
74
Morocco
76
Tunisia
77
Competitive Landscape
79
Table: Key Players - North Africa Telecoms Sector
79
Company Profile
80
Alg-rie T-l-com
80
Maroc T-l-com
84
Tunisie T-l-com
88
Orascom Telecom
92
Tunisiana
95
Regional Overview
97
Table: Huawei Recent Contract Wins
100
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
103
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
104
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
105
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
105
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Terms
106
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Sources
109
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
110
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
111
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
112

The North Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, Tunisian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc