Business Monitor International


North Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 15 July 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
North Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Other than Libya, which continues to feel the effects of the 2011 civil war, competition is strong in North Africa's   mobile markets. While there remains some growth potential in the region's mobile markets, BMI believes mobile data and increased liberalisation in the wireline segment will be the major drivers of growth throughout our forecast period to 2018. Morocco's regulator has given incumbent Maroc Télécom until August to impleme nt local loop unbundling, Algérie Télécom has reduced the price of broadband services to respond to the launch of 3G services in H114 and Tunisie Télécom has ramped up investment in its wireline and mobile data networks. Meanwhile, Etisalat has completed its acquisition of a 53% stake in Maroc T élécom. BMI expects these developments to result in an acceleration of convergence strategies, as operators look beyond the mobile voice market for revenue and subscriptions growth.

Key Data

  • Data from the ARPT showed there were 3.5mn mobile subscriptions in Algeria at the end of 2013, around 200,000 higher than BMI's estimate owing to strong growth in state-owned Mobilis' network. We forecast this will rise to 40.7mn in 2014. 3G growth will be fairly limited in 2014, as licences were only offered at the end of 2013. 

  • New regulator data in Tunisia revealed much higher 3G growth than has been previously believed. INT data shows there were 3.588mn 3G subscriptions in Tunisia in March 2014, up 21.3% q-o-q and 96.5% from a year earlier.

  • Heated competition between Morocco's three mobile operators sustained strong growth in the mobile and 3G markets in Q114, with net quarterly additions of nearly a million and more than 500,000, respectively. We forecast the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 49.2mn and 3G subscriptions to reach 9.0mn by 2018.

Key Trends & Developments

In Q114 the INT released a breakdown of dedicated 3G dongle subscriptions and voice and data 3G subscriptions, which showed...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Algeria
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Algeria 2011-2018)
13
Libya
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2011-2018)
16
Morocco
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Morocco 2011-2018)
17
Tunisia
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tunisia 2011-2018)
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Middle East and North Africa Risk/Rewards Ratings
23
Table: MENA Telecoms Risks/rewards ratings, Q314
26
Market Overview
27
Algeria
27
Key Developments
27
Mobile
27
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q114
31
Table: Algeria - Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2012-2014 (USD)
32
3G
32
Table: Algeria Exclusive 3G Province Groupings
34
Mobile Operator Data
34
Table: Mobilis
34
Table: Djezzy
35
Table: Ooredoo
36
Fixed Line
37
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2003-2011 ('000)
37
Broadband
38
Government Broadband Plans
39
Libya
41
Key Developments
41
Mobile
42
Table: Libya Mobile Market, December 2013
43
A Third Operator
43
Fixed Line
45
Broadband
46
Morocco
47
Key Developments
47
Mobile
47
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q413
51
3G
52
Mobile Operator Data
55
Table: Maroc T-l-com
55
Table: M-ditel
56
Table: Wana
56
Fixed Line
56
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2012-2014
58
Broadband
59
Tunisia
62
Key Developments
62
Mobile
62
Table: Tunisia - Mobile Market, Q114
65
Mobile Operator Data
68
Table: Tunisie T-l-com
68
Table: Ooredoo
68
Table: Orange Tunisia
69
Fixed Line
69
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2011-2013
71
Broadband
71
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2011-2013
72
Middle East and North Africa Mobile Content
74
Regulatory Development
78
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
78
Algeria
78
Table: Key Developments
80
Libya
80
Morocco
82
Table: Key Developments
83
Tunisia
84
Competitive Landscape
85
Table: Key Players - North Africa Telecoms Sector
85
Company Profile
86
Alg-rie T-l-com
86
Maroc T-l-com
90
Tunisie T-l-com
94
Orascom Telecom
98
Tunisiana
101
Regional Overview
104
Table: OSN Recent Content Developments
105
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Sources
116
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
118
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
119

The North Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, Tunisian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc