Business Monitor International


Nigeria Telecommunications Report

Published 23 December 2014

  • 121 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Nigeria Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Airtel 's decision to sell its cell towers in Nigeria to ATC will increase competition and raise the prospects of consolidation in the local towers market The Airtel-ATC deal comes after rivals MTN and Etisalat reached separate agreements with independent tower firm IHS Towers for the majority of their respective tower assets. Given these developments, we reiterate our view that Globacom (Glo), the only remaining major operator in the country yet to announce a tower outsourcing strategy, will have to move quickly in the same direction to avoid lagging behind in the area of operational efficiency, which would impact on competitiveness in terms of service quality and pricing.

Key Data

  • Mobile subscriptions grew by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q314, bringing total growth in the 12 months to September 2014 to 11.3%.

  • Mobile ARPU was flat in Q314.

  • The fixed-line sector grew by 4.6% in Q314 and 14.3% in the 12 months to September 2014. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth.

  • The number of mobile data users grew by more than 31% in the 12 months to September 2014 to account for just over half of total mobile subscriptions.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Nigeria dropped one place to second position on BMI's Q1 2015 Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) for Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria's aggregate score of 53.7 out of a possible 100 was marginally less than an aggregate score 54.0 recorded in the previous quarter. Nigeria retains a comparatively high Industry Rewards, Industry Risk and Country Risk scores, reflecting high voice and data services growth potential, regulatory independence and strong private consumption growth outlook. However, Nigeria's Country Rewards score is held back by a low GDP per capita and high unemployment rate.

Key Trends And Developments

Airtel announced on November 24 2014 that it has selected American Tower Corp. (ATC) as the successful bidder for its towers infrastructure in Nigeria. Airtel will...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2018)
16
Wireline
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2018)
19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Q414 Africa RRR Table
26
Market Overview
28
Mobile
28
Table: Regional Comparison
29
Key Developments
29
Market Growth
30
Market Share
31
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market ('000)
34
ARPU
36
Networks
37
Mobile Content
41
Table: Glo VAS Launched April 2014
42
Table: Value-Added Services Timeline
47
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
49
Table: Market Overview
51
Table: MTN
51
Table: Globacom
52
Table: Airtel
52
Table: Etisalat
52
Table: CDMA
53
Africa Mobile Content
54
Table: Selected Regional VAS Developments, H114
59
Wireline
62
Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Market
65
Table: Fixed-Line And Broadband Developments
71
Industry Trends And Developments
73
Regulatory Development
75
Regulatory Overview
75
Table: Nigeria: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
75
Competition
79
Competitive Landscape
86
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
86
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
86
Company Profile
87
NITEL
87
MTN
91
Airtel
97
Globacom
101
Etisalat Nigeria
106
Regional Overview
110
Table: HTA Footprint, July 2014
110
Demographic Forecast
115
Demographic Outlook
115
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
117
Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Sources
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
125

The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc