BMI View: Although there remains considerable growth potential in Nigeria's telecoms market, with mobile penetration still below 75%, capturing these opportunities will depend on further price competition between operators and potentially expensive network expansion to underserved areas. At the same time, operators must encourage greater use of data services and differentiate themselves by enriching their value added services (VAS) portfolios. As a means of achieving greater operational efficiencies and in order to ensure their ability to continue investing in greater quality and breadth of services, in Q214 mobile operators began offloading their tower assets to independent towers firms. This creates an important competitive advantage for first movers Etisalat and MTN and BMI expects other operators to follow their lead in order to benefit from the same operational savings.
Mobile subscriptions grew by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214, bringing total growth in the 12 months to June 2014 to 9.1%.
Mobile ARPU declined by 4.6% in Q214.
The fixed-line sector grew by 5.5% in Q214 and 6.8% in the 12 months to June 2014. This was the strongest quarter of growth since Q212.
The number of mobile data users grew by more than 39% in the 12 months to June 2014 to account for just over half of total mobile subscriptions.
Nigeria retained the top position this quarter on BMI's Q4 2014 Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) for Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria's aggregate score of 54.0 out of a possible 100 is boosted by comparatively high Industry Rewards, Industry Risk and Country Risk scores, reflecting high voice and data services growth potential, regulatory independence and strong private consumption growth outlook. However, Nigeria's Country Rewards score is held back by a low GDP per capita and high unemployment rate.
Key Trends And Developments
In July 2014 Etisalat sold its towers infrastructure in...
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.