We are forecasting that the Nigerian economy will expand by 7.0% in 2014, up from an estimated 6.7% in 2013 thanks to continued strong expansion in non-oil sectors. This positive environment is set to feed into the country's shipping industry, which is set to enjoy a healthy 12 months. The positive impact of agriculture mean that this important sector should contribute strongly to private consumption growth. The risks to our view are to the downside and stem from the political risk and policy uncertainty.
The Nigerian economy expanded by 6.8% in real terms in the third quarter of 2013 (Q313) - the latest period for which data are available - and full year growth looks set to come in at around our 6.7% forecast. We have made a slight downgrade to our 2014 growth forecast owing to building political and policy uncertainty as the 2015 election approaches. However, the downgrade is only slight - we now see expansion coming in at 7.0% compared to 7.2% previously with our forecast remaining above the government's estimate of 6.8% included in the 2014 budget.
Leading the way in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth at Nigerian ports will be Port Harcourt, which is the only one of the country's ports set to register double-digit gains during 2014. Following closely behind will be the Port of Tincan Island (9.74%), while Nigeria's largest port at Lagos is pencilled in to see healthy annual growth of 7.70%.
Headline Industry Data
2014 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 7.70%.
2014 Port Harcourt tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 10.47%.
2014 Port of Tincan Island throughput is forecast to increase by 9.74%.
2014 trade growth forecast at 7.75%.
Key Industry Trends
Nigerian Port Sector Looking Buoyant - The Nigerian port infrastructure sector look set to enjoy considerable growth over the midterm , with the country's minister for transport highlighting seven potential deep water seaports that are in the pipeline. Some plans are...
The Nigeria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Nigeria.
BMI's Nigeria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Nigeria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.