Business Monitor International


Nigeria Insurance Report

Published 11 November 2013

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Nigeria Insurance Report

BMI View: As of late 2013, it is clear that some of the objectives of the Market Development & Restructuring Initiative of NAICOM, Nigeria's insurance regulator, were overly ambitious. Nevertheless, positive changes are underway, and should benefit the country's leading insurers. The coming year or so will show whether the MDRI actually produces a meaningful rise in non-life penetration, as it should.

When NAICOM, the insurance regulator of Nigeria, launched its Market Development & Restructuring Initiative (MDRI), the ambitious objectives were due to have been achieved by the end of 2012. A year later, successes are hard to identify and to quantify. In terms of premiums written, we think that the entire insurance sector is only about one third of the size envisaged by the architects of the MDRI. It is not at all clear that Nigerians have confidence in insurance companies. How many Nigerians actually use insurance is not clear: however the figure is far nearer the 6% of 2008 than the 30% hoped for.

Nevertheless, and as was the case last year, the overall tenor of this report is positive. Real progress has been made towards the objectives of the MDRI. Nigeria's leading insurance companies may be (very) small organisations by most standards, and lacking in pricing power. However, they have demonstrated the ability to survive in the face of enormous challenges. Several of them enjoy the backing of multi-lateral institutions such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC - the private sector arm of the World Bank). A number are in partnership with multi-nationals from South Africa, many of whom are looking to expand their businesses in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

In fact, 2014 could well be the year which shows whether Nigeria's insurance sector really is moving towards the transformation hoped for by the architect of the MDRI and some other protagonists. In this report we explain the various developments that have been underway in the insurance...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Table: Nigeria's Total Premiums, 2010-2017
5
Key Insights And Key Risks
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Nigeria Insurance Industry SWOT
7
Nigeria Political SWOT
8
Nigeria Economic SWOT
8
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
9
Life Sector Overview
10
Middle East And North Africa Life Sector Overview
10
Table: Middle East And North Africa's Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
10
Nigeria Life Sector Update
11
Life Industry Forecast Scenario
14
Table: Nigeria's Total Life Premiums, 2010-2017
14
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections
15
Population
15
Table: Nigeria's Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017
15
Non-Life Sector Overview
17
Middle East And North Africa Non-Life Sector Overview
17
Table: Middle East And North Africa's Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
17
Nigeria Non-Life Sector Update
18
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario
21
Table: Nigeria's Total Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017
21
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections
22
Macroeconomic Outlook
22
Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
25
Table: Nigeria's Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
25
Political Stability Outlook
26
Healthcare
28
Epidemiology
32
Table: Nigeria's Insurance Key Drivers - Disease Adjusted Life Years, 2010-2017
33
Motor
34
Islamic Finance
35
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: Nigeria's Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: Middle East and Africa Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Company Profiles
39
Leadway Assurance Company
39
Mansard Insurance
42
Demographic Outlook
44
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
BMI Methodology
48
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Table: Insurance Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
50
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Nigeria Insurance Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.

BMI's Nigeria Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Nigerian insurance industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Nigeria's insurance market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Outlook

Individual analysis of both Life and Non-Life insurance sector developments and prospects across developed states and emerging markets - supported by BMI's global industry growth forecasts. This is followed by an in-depth evaluation of region- and country-specific trends, focusing on BMI's country-by-country market growth data.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (Life and Non-Life) in the insurance market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry and economic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Premiums: Total (US$mn), growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (US$ per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, and total premiums.

Life: Data on gross written premiums for all major non-life segments (e.g. motor, fire, work).

Non-life: Data on gross written premiums for all major life segments (e.g. life, retirement).

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (US$mn) and market share (%). This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc