Business Monitor International


Nigeria Freight Transport Report

Published 11 November 2013

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Nigeria Freight Transport Report

There will be strong growth across all freight sectors in Nigeria in 2014 and through the medium term. There is growing interest in air freight in the country, from regional and international players, there is significant investment going into the ports sector, and the rail freight sector is being relaunched. This will be supported by a growing population with increasing wealth for disposable goods, coupled with a burgeoning non-oil manufacturing sector. While there are risks given infrastructure lags and potential political risk in the run-up to 2015 elections, we are confident that the outlook for the freight transport sector in Nigeria is bright.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight tonnes-km forecast to grow by 10.7% and to average 9.9% to 2018.

  • 2014 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.7% and to average 6.0% to 2018.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnes-km to grow by 9.6% and to average 9.0% to 2018.

  • 2014 trade growth forecast at 7.8% and to average 6. 3% to 2018.

Key Industry Trends

Growing Interest In Air Freight: Nigeria's air freight sector was characterised in 2013 by a host of companies introducing or extending their coverage of the West African giant. This is a trend we believe will continue into 2014; and not only connecting to Europe, as has been the case traditionally. We also see scope for growing numbers of connections both regionally within Africa, but also with the Middle Eastern hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar.

New Ports And Port Expansions To Cater For Growing Container Demand: There have been a number of developments in West African ports. In October 2011, APMT announced it was expanding the capacity of its container terminal at the Lagos port of Apapa to 1mn TEUs, which would make it the largest in terms of capacity in West Africa.

Rail Freight Back On Track: BMI believes that the rejuvenation of Nigeria's railway network, which had decayed over many years of underinvestment and neglect, could help ease some of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
8
Nigeria Freight SWOT
8
Nigeria Political SWOT
8
Nigeria Economic SWOT
9
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Air
10
Maritime
11
Rail
13
Market Overview
16
Industry Forecast
21
Air Freight
21
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
21
Maritime Freight
21
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
22
Rail Freight
22
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
23
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2015
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn and % change y-o-y), 2010-2017
24
Table: Nigeria's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
25
Table: Nigeria's Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
25
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
26
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
27
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
31
Political Outlook
36
Domestic Politics
36
Long-Term Political Outlook
38
Macroeconomic Outlook
42
Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
44
Company Profiles
45
Arik Air (Cargo)
45
Nigeria Demographic Outlook
47
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
48
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
49
Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
50
Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
50
BMI Methodology
51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
51
Transport Industry
51
Sources
52

The Nigeria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Nigeria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc