Business Monitor International


Nigeria Freight Transport Report

Published 13 November 2014

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Nigeria Freight Transport Report

There will be strong growth in freight transport volumes in Nigeria in 2015 and beyond. Strong real GDP growth, increasing demand for consumer goods by an expanding middle class and a growing manufacturing sector will all raise intermodal container volumes. The country's ongoing population growth will power this. The growth in demand is driving investment into the sector, with substantial interest not only in developing new ports and expanding old ones, but also reinvigorating the country's dilapidated rail network. Road and air freight infrastructure are also seeing new investment.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 air freight tonnes-km forecast to grow by 10.7% and to average 9.6% to 2019.

  • 2015 port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 5.9% and to average 5.3% to 2019.

  • 2015 rail freight tonnes-km to grow by 7.6% and to average 7.1% to 2019.

  • 2015 trade growth forecast to contract by 6.9% as a result of falling oil prices.

Key Industry Trends

Rail Studies Highlight Sector Growth Potential

Nigeria's rail sector exhibits all of the traits that underpin our view that rail infrastructure across Africa will be a key area of investment. Six planned studies into new rail corridors linking population centres and economic hubs are a key element of the government's economic transformation plan and will boost our already positive forecasts for the rail sector.

Nigerian Port Sector Looking Buoyant

The Nigerian port infrastructure sector looks set to enjoy considerable growth over the coming years after comments from the Minister for Transport highlighted seven potential deep water seaports in the pipeline. Some plans are already well developed, but others add upside to our buoyant port sector forecasts. We forecast 9.9% real growth in the sector over 2014 and will now look to upgrade the average growth rate of the sector over our forecast period up to 2023, which currently stands at 6.7%.

CMA CGM To Invest USD300mn In Lekki...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
8
Nigeria Freight SWOT
8
Nigeria Political SWOT
8
Nigeria Economic SWOT
9
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Air
10
Maritime
11
Rail
13
Market Overview
16
Industry Forecast
21
Air Freight
21
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
21
Maritime Freight
21
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
22
Rail Freight
22
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
23
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2015
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn and % change y-o-y), 2010-2017
24
Table: Nigeria's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
25
Table: Nigeria's Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
25
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
26
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
27
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
31
Political Outlook
36
Domestic Politics
36
Long-Term Political Outlook
38
Macroeconomic Outlook
42
Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
44
Company Profiles
45
Arik Air (Cargo)
45
Nigeria Demographic Outlook
47
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
48
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
49
Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
50
Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
50
BMI Methodology
51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
51
Transport Industry
51
Sources
52

The Nigeria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Nigeria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc