Business Monitor International


Nigeria Agribusiness Report

Published 22 May 2014

  • 112 pages
 
$1,295.00
Nigeria Agribusiness Report

BMI View: There is uncertainty over the government's efforts to reduce dependency on food imports although we expect that the government will persevere in enforcing the substitution of cassava for increasing proportions of wheat in flour. Wheat production is in danger of disappearing altogether as the Boko Haram insurgency drags on. Tariffs on rice are being reduced creating uncertainty for domestic producers, but this was probably inevitable in the face of runaway smuggling. We still expect to see support for production from government and private sector investors. Corn production will bounce back over the coming year and should see sustained growth driven by buoyant demand for both human and livestock consumption. We see poultry and pork output gaining momentum, although milk remains the segment we are most optimistic about. Finally, cocoa farmers will continue to enjoy high prices for their produce despite better than expected results for other West African producers and we believe they are well-placed to increase their share of global output.

Cocoa Marches On
Nigeria - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 59.6% to 358,600 tonnes. Higher global prices, a result of the struggles of other West African producers, will provide stimulus to production, as will burgeoning investment.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 19.9% to 9.3mn tonnes. A fast-growing population with steadily rising incomes will ensure strong demand for the staple grain..

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD 6.28bn in 2014; forecast to grow by an average of 6.7% a year over 2014-2018.

  • Real GDP growth 2014: 7.0% y-o-y, (up from 6.7% in 2013).

  • Inflation (annual average) 2014: 7.5% (down from 7.8% in 2013).

Industry Developments

Nigeria appears to be abandoning its ultra-high tariffs on rice in the face of lost revenues on imports as smuggling has spiralled out of control....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Cocoa Outlook
14
Table: Nigeria Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
15
Table: Nigeria Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Nigeria Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
20
Table: Nigeria Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Livestock And Dairy Outlook
24
Table: Nigeria Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Nigeria Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: Nigeria Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: Nigeria Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: Nigeria Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: Nigeria Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Grains Outlook
32
Table: Nigeria Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
33
Table: Nigeria Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
33
Table: Nigeria Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Table: Nigeria Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Sugar Outlook
39
Table: Nigeria Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
40
Table: Nigeria Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
41
Commodities Price Analysis
43
Monthly Grains Update
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
51
Monthly Softs Update
52
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
62
Upstream Analysis
63
Africa Machinery Outlook
63
Africa GM Outlook
70
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
75
Downstream Analysis
81
Food
81
Food Consumption
81
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
83
Table: Sugar Confectionery Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
83
Table: Preserved Fish Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
84
Table: Biscuits Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
85
Drink
86
Alcoholic Drinks
86
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
87
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
88
Soft Drinks
89
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
89
Table: Carbonates Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
91
Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
93
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
95
Regional Overview
96
Competitive Landscape
103
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
103
Demographic Forecast
104
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Sector-Specific Methodology
109

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Nigeria.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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