Business Monitor International


New Zealand Agribusiness Report

Published 20 November 2014

  • 78 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
New Zealand Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium- to long term.   This will be supportive for both the dairy and the livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacityHowever, the outlook for the sector is weak for 2014/15. We forecast milk production to grow by a weak 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 21.4mn tonnes, compared with the 4.0% growth recorded in 2013/14 and the five-year growth average of 4.3%.

Key Trends

  • Milk production growth to 2017/18: 12.7 % to 22.8mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.

  • Milk powder production growth to 2017/18: 18.3% to 1.5mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18:  8.2% to 671,000 tonnes. The dairy sector will continue to limit the amount of cattle available for slaughter. 

  • 2014 real GDP growth:  2.6%, up from 2.4% in 2013.

  • 2014 consumer price inflation: 1.8%, up from 1.1% in 2013.

Key Developments

New Zealand's dairy sector recorded a strong year in 2013/14, with milk production, dairy prices and farms income registering robust growth. However, the outlook for the sector is weak for 2014/15. We forecast milk production to grow by a weak 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 21.4mn tonnes, compared with the 4.0% growth recorded in 2013/14 and the five-year growth average of 4.3%.

Over our forecast period to 2017/18, we project milk...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Livestock Outlook
13
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
14
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
14
Dairy Outlook
16
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Commodities Price Analysis
22
Monthly Grains Update
22
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
30
Monthly Softs Update
31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Upstream Analysis
42
Asia Machinery Outlook
42
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
44
Asia GM Outlook
50
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
56
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
56
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
60
Regional Overview
64
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
68
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Main Agribusiness Firms In New Zealand
71
Demographic Forecast
72
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
73
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
74
Table: New Zealand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
75
Table: New Zealand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
75
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sector-Specific Methodology
77

The New Zealand Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's New Zealand Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in New Zealand.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The New Zealand Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc