Business Monitor International


Netherlands Petrochemicals Report

Published 19 December 2013

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Netherlands Petrochemicals Report

Although there are considerable downside risks over the short term, Dutch petrochemicals still offer some distinct competitive advantages in the medium-to-long term. The size and integration of the Dutch petrochemicals industry enables economies of scale, which means investors will sustain their interests in some segments where global market conditions are favourable.

In 2013, the Netherlands had capacities of 3.98mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene, 675,000tpa of polyvinyl chloride, 95,000tpa of polystyrene, 1.9mn tpa of polyethylene, 780,000tpa of polypropylene and 450,000tpa of polyethylene terephthalate.

The rubber and plastic production index stagnated in 9M13, although there was an overall upward trend in index growth from a low-point in March. The chemicals index saw a 5.5% decline over the period, reversing the growth witnessed in 2012. The contraction was much deeper than the performance of the manufacturing sector overall, which declined 1.5% on average in the January-September period following a decline of 0.7% in the previous year.

  • Higher oil prices coupled with lower product prices are likely to reduce margins of players operating in the Dutch petrochemicals and chemicals arena. In 2013, BMI estimates that the average price of naphtha per barrel was around US$105, down just 1.5% from the previous year's historic highs and nearly 20% greater than the level seen in 2008, when the financial crisis hit. The cost of naphtha is likely to remain stubbornly high at over US$100/bbl in 2014 and 2015, while ethane-based rivals in North America will be driving costs down as a result of shale gas exploitation.

  • The Dutch petrochemicals industry has attracted investment with Thailand's Indorama Ventures increasing PTA capacity at the company's Rotterdam plant by 250,000tpa to 600,000tpa with commercial production beginning in 2014, thereby serving as a major feedstock supplier to PET producers in Western Europe including its own recently expanded PET plant in...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
6
SWOT Analysis
7
Netherlands Petrochemicals Sector SWOT
7
Netherlands Political SWOT
8
Netherlands Economic SWOT
8
Netherlands Business Environment SWOT
9
Global Petrochemicals Overview
10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
19
European Petrochemicals Overview
24
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
West Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: West Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Netherlands Risk Reward Ratings
30
Market Overview
32
Table: Netherlands' Olefins Facilities 2010
32
Table: Netherlands' Aromatics and Intermediates Facilities 2010
33
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Industry Forecast Scenario
35
Table: Netherlands' Oil & Gas And Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
36
Macroeconomic Forecast
38
Table: Netherlands - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
39
Company Profiles
40
LyondellBasell Industries
40
Sabic Europe
42
Glossary of Terms
44
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
44
BMI Methodology
45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
45
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
45
Cross Checks
46
Business Environment Ratings
47
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
49
Country Snapshot
50
Table: The Netherlands' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: The Netherlands' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: The Netherlands' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: The Netherlands' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53

The Netherlands Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Netherlands Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Dutch petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Dutch petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc