BMI View: After back-to-back years of volatility in the Dutch metals sector, 2014 looks to have laid the foundation for a prolonged period of stability in terms of both production and consumption. This positive momentum in the sector is set to continue through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. BMI expects steel to continue to dominate the country's metals industry; however, we see no significant new investment in the sub-sector over the coming years. Tata Steel, the largest producer in the country, is facing up to an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with cheap steel and aluminium being exported from China. Nevertheless, opportunities remain in high-quality steel, of which the Netherlands is a key producer.
Long-Term Growth In Output
After posting a contraction in both production and consumption in 2012 and 2013, 2014 heralded a turnaround for the steel industry. We expect the year to close with output up 1.4% and consumption up 2.1% y-o-y. However, BMI cautions that monthly data for steel production in the Netherlands suggests that a strong close to the year will be necessary for such estimates to become a reality. Over the first eight months of the year (correct to data published for August) output rose for five months and contracted for three. Although this leaves the market sat below where it started in 2014, we still maintain our year-end estimates.
Tata Steel Europe, the largest producer in the country, is steadily increasing investment. It is spending EUR800mn in increasing liquid steel-making capacity at IJmuiden by 500,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) to 7.7mn tpa by 2015-16, while reducing jobs by 1,000. This should significantly improve the competitiveness of its IJmuiden complex. The company is investing EUR12mn in enhancing production of specialised corrosion resistant steel with a new finishing line for hot dipped galvanised steel. As a result, the IJmuiden complex will buck the trend of capacity closures seen...
The Netherlands Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Netherlands.
BMI's Netherlands Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Netherlands.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).