Business Monitor International


Netherlands Country Risk Report

Published 16 December 2014 | Quarterly

  • 33 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Netherlands Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Netherland's economic growth will be supported by the recovery in the domestic housing market. However, high levels of household indebtedness and the ongoing stagnation in the eurozone will prevent a stronger economic performance over the medium term.

  • The coalition government's ability to push through a front-loaded austerity programme and a raft of labour market reforms will contribute to the Netherlands' fiscal accounts being among the healthiest in the eurozone.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised down our 2015 and 2016 headline real GDP growth forecasts to 1.4% and 1.6% from 1.5% and 1.8% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • If ECB monetary easing fails to prevent the eurozone falling into a period of deflation, we would expect to see a marked deterioration in Dutch fixed investment as rising real interest rates make borrowing prohibitively expensive.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Netherlands 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 848.6 877.9 845.3 839.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -0.7 0.4 1.4 1.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.8
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.83
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.2 10.0 9.6 9.2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Fiscal Position To Remain Among Healthiest In Eurozone
8
The Netherlands' relatively successful implementation of structural economic reforms, combined with a brightening growth outlook, will
The Netherlands' relatively successful implementation of structural economic reforms, combined with a brightening growth outlook, will
ensure that the country's fiscal dynamics remain among the healthiest in the eurozone over the coming years
Table: Political Overview
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Household Indebtedness To Cap Recovery
12
The Dutch economy will grow just above the eurozone average over 2015 and 2016
However, high levels of household debt combined
with persistently weak external demand will prevent the economy reaching escape velocity
table : GDP Contributi on To Growth
12
Regional Economy
14
Storing Up Fiscal Problems For The Future
14
Member by member, the eurozone is abandoning fiscal targets amid political pressure
The main exception is Germany, which
further illustrates the profound schisms within the euro area
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to become increasingly
interventionist as official policy relies heavily on monetary stimulus
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
17
Operational Risk Index
17
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
19
Metals
19
table: Steel Production & Consumption
20
table : Steel Industry Historical Data
20
Renewables
21
table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (2012-2017)
23
table: Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts (2018-2023)
24
Other Key Sectors
27
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
27
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
27
table : Pharma Sector Key Indic ators
27
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
28
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
28
table : Freight Key Indicators
28
Business Monitor International Ltd www
com 3
Contents
Contents
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
29
Global Outlook
29
Warning Signs Growing
29
Table: Global Assumptions
29
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %
30
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %
30
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
31

The Netherlands Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Netherlands. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Netherlands's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Netherlands's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Netherlands's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Netherlands, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Netherlands Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Netherlands' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Netherlands through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Netherlands Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Netherlands and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Netherlands, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Netherlands over the next 5-years?

BMI's Netherlands country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Netherlands Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Netherlands.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Netherlands's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Netherlands’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Netherlands's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Netherlands?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Netherlands against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Netherlands’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Netherlands will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Netherlands's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express