Business Monitor International


Netherlands Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 31 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Netherlands Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • We expect the economy to post positive growth in 2014, but with the eurozone recovery stumbling in recent quarters, we now expect a more modest outturn for Dutch GDP.

  • With unemployment rising and the fiscal deficit widening, the government will continue to suffer in the polls.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised up our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.5% previously

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Should the eurozone sovereign debt crisis take a turn for the worse in the coming quarters, we would expect a more pronounced contraction in GDP than currently expected.

GREECE, NETHERLANDS - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Greece
Nominal GDP, EURbn 1 225.4 223.5 211.6 193.7 184.5 185.0 185.0 189.3 194.7 201.1
Nominal GDP, US$bn 1 315.5 296.5 294.1 246.1 243.6 234.9 227.5 227.1 233.6 241.4
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1 -3.1 -4.9 -7.1 -6.4 -5.1 0.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5
GDP per capita, US$ 1 28,427 26,684 26,456 22,119 21,887 21,107 20,450 20,423 21,025 21,743
Population, mn 2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 e 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 3 -9.3 -5.8 -7.8 -3.4 -3.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4
Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 3 10.3 14.2 20.7 27.0 e 28.1 25.0 22.1 19.1 19.7 18.5
Netherlands
Nominal GDP, EURbn 4 571.1 588.4 602.1 610.1 e 615.8 636.6 665.3 697.2 730.6 765.6
Nominal GDP, US$bn 4 799.6 780.5 836.9 774.8 e 812.9 808.4 818.4 836.6 876.7 918.8
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4 -3.5 1.5 1.0 -1.2 e -1.3 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7
GDP per capita, US$ 4 48,448

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Success Of Eurosceptic Party Will Stymie Further European Integration
8
TABLE: Political Ove rvie w
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Economic Activity
12
Recovery Gaining Traction
12
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
12
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
13
Chapter 3: Business Environment
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
15
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
17
Food & Drink
17
TABLE: Food Consumpti on Indicat ors - Hist orical Data & Forecasts , 2010-2017
17
Telecommunications
20
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Inte rnet - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
21
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Fixed Line - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
22
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - ARPU (EUR) - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
23
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Mobile - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
23
Other Key Sectors
25
TABLE: Freight Key Indicat ors
25
TABLE: Pha rma Sect or Key Indicat ors
25
Nethe rlands Inf rast ructu re Sect or Key Indicat ors
25
TABLE: Aut os Sect or Key Indicat ors
26
NETHERLANDS Q2 2014
NETHERLANDS Q2 2014
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
27
Global Outlook
27
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
27
Table: Global Assumptions
27
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
28
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FOR ECASTS, %
28
Table : Eme rging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
29

The Netherlands Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Netherlands and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Netherlands's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Netherlands's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Netherlands's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Netherlands, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Netherlands Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Netherlands economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Netherlands through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Netherlands Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Netherlands and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Netherlands, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Netherlands over the next 5-years?

BMI's Netherlands country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Netherlands Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Netherlands.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Netherlands's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Netherlands's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Netherlands, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Netherlands's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Netherlands will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Netherlands's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2008-2012, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2013-2017, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express