Business Monitor International


Namibia Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 45 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Namibia Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • Despite persistent external headwinds, we predict that the Namibian economy will experience a modest pickup in growth in 2014. Favourable credit conditions and a recovery in the agricultural sector will support solid private consumption growth, while a major government housing programme and several new mining projects will see fixed investment growth remain robust.

  • The expansionary FY2014/15 budget announced in February contains few major surprises. In an election year, a public sector wage hike will be politically popular but will add to persistent recurrent spending pressures. Given our slightly more cautious outlook for the economy, we believe the budget shortfall of 5.4% of GDP projected by the government could prove ambitious.

  • With inflation likely to be contained and with economic growth still below trend levels, albeit picking up, we expect interest rates to stay at current levels through 2014. The key risk to the inflation outlook continues to come in the form of imported price pressures stemming from a weak currency.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • The latest balance of payments data published by the Bank of Namibia have prompted changes to our forecasts for Namibia's current account. We now predict a current account shortfall equal to 1.9% of GDP in 2014 and 2.8% of GDP in 2015 (compared to 2.3% and 3.0% previously).

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Namibia's small, open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad deteriorates (or, conversely, improves) more than we anticipate, we would have to adjust our forecasts accordingly.

  • Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks, as illustrated by the ongoing drought which has threatened yields and food security. Changing weather conditions pose both upside and downside risks to a number of our forecasts, including for growth,...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Ruling Party Set To Be Returned To Power
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Economy Picking Up Despite External Headwinds
14
table: GDP BY EXPENDITURE
14
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
16
Balance of Payments
17
Exports Picking-Up, But High Imports Keeps C/A In Deficit
17
Monetary Policy
18
Balanced Risks To See Rates Remain Steady
18
table: MONETARY POLICY
18
Fiscal Policy
19
Recurrent Spending Pressures To The Fore In Election Year
19
table: FISCAL POLICY
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Namibian Economy to 2023
23
Resource Powered Growth
23
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Business Environment Outlook
26
Institutions
26
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
26
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
27
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
28
TABLE: ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
29
Market Orientation
30
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
30
Infrastructure
32
Operational Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
33
Autos
33
table: Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts
34
Other Key Sectors
41
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
41
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
41
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
41
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
43
Global Outlook
43
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
45

The Namibia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Namibia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Namibia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business inThe Namibia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Namibia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Namibian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Namibia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Namibia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Namibia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Namibia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Namibia over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Namibia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the The Namibian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Namibia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Namibia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Namibia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Namibia, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Namibia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express