Business Monitor International


Mozambique Power Report

Published 07 February 2014

  • 68 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mozambique Power Report

BMI View: Mozambique is one of the most attractive markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, with abundant natural resources and healthy GDP growth attracting foreign investors. Hydropower makes up 99.9% of the country's power mix, according to BMI forecasts for 2014, which leaves the country susceptible to climactic conditions. The mix will diversify over the 10-year forecast period, with 1.1 terawatt hours of coal-fired capacity to come online in 2015, thereby opening the country up to more international investment opportunities. However, a rapidly expanding population will put a strain on Mozambique's infrastructure, with the gap between supply and demand to close and the country to require imports by 2023.

Mozambique's power sector is significantly more attractive than many of its Sub-Saharan Africa counterparts. It has an electrification rate of 34%, ranks 109th out of 148 countries in the Global Competiveness Report 2013-2014 and ranks 119th out of 177 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index 2013. While these may not look impressive attributes, it scores better than many of its regional peers. In addition to this, the country is experiencing healthy real GDP growth (expected to average 10% over 2014-2023) and is a net exporter.

There are a number of big-ticket projects in the pipeline, funded by international investors, which will bolster growth and keep the market attractive. However, despite this growth, the gap between generation and consumption will diminish over the forecast period, largely due to Mozambique's rapidly expanding population. In 2014, the gap between supply and demand is forecast to stand at 9.6 terawatt hours (TWh). However, by 2023, the gap will stand at just 2.6TWh. The country is also forecast to become an importer by 2023; currently, it is a net exporter.

Recent Developments

  • In 2014, BMI forecasts power generation to increase by 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), to reach 23.7TWh.

  • In 2014, BMI forecasts power...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Recent Developments
7
Key BMI Forecasts
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Mozambique Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Mozambique Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
12
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
23
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
25
Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
25
Table: Mozambique Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
26
Table: Mozambique Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Mozambique Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Southern Africa Power Projects Database
43
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database
43
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
53
Power - MEA Regional Overview
53
Glossary
61
Table: Glossary Of Terms
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
65
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Mozambique Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Mozambique Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mozambique to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Mozambique's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc