Business Monitor International


Morocco Business Forecast Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 35 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Morocco Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market, coupled with a burgeoning tourism industry, should bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years.

  • We expect the Moroccan economy to experience weak growth throughout 2014, after having reaped benefits from an agriculture-based recovery in 2013. However, we see growth accelerating over the early months of 2015, due to a strong external environment and improvements in domestic demand and liquidity. We have revised our growth forecasts upward, and see the economy expanding by 2.9% in real terms in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015 (compared to our previous projections of 2.8% and 3.7%).

  • The Moroccan government's decision on April 30 to raise the minimum wage by 10% in both the public and private sectors by 2015 erodes much of the recent progress made on economic and fiscal reform. The move will help to bolster domestic demand over the coming quarters, at the cost of a renewed deterioration in the fiscal account and additional difficulties for the industrial sector.

  • We forecast Morocco's current account deficit to narrow to 6.2% of GDP in 2014 and 6.0% in 2015, down from a record 9.7% in 2012. We expect only modest improvements to the trade account in the near term, driven largely by lower fuel imports. That said, we retain our positive long-term view of Morocco's export growth prospects, and note that diversification and intrinsic advantages should ensure continued gains over the coming years.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Our forecasts for both economic activity and fiscal policy assume that Morocco will benefit from significant inflows of foreign aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other organisations in 2014. Should this assistance fail to materialise, it would pose serious downside risks to the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Foreign Policy
8
Morocco - West Africa: Abundant Opportunities
8
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
TABLE: KING MOHAMMED VI'S TOUR
9
Long-Term Political Outlook
12
Challenges For The Coming Decade: Scenarios For Change
12
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
15
Economic Activity
16
Poised For Stronger Growth Over 2015
16
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %
16
Labour Market
18
Minimum Wage Hike Undermines Reform Efforts
18
Investment Climate
20
Industrial Strategy Highlights Export Growth Prospects
20
TABLE: OUTLINE OF 2014-2020 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY
20
Monetary Policy
22
Inflation To See Steady Rise
22
TABLE: DIESEL SUBSIDIES (MAD/litre )
22
Table: Monetary Policy
22
Fixed Income
23
Fixed Income: Yields Have Bottomed
23
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Moroccan Economy To 2023
25
Private Demand-Driven Growth To Continue
25
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Business Environment
29
SWOT Analysis
29
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
31
Global Outlook
31
Growth Increasingly Polarised
31
Table: Global Assumptions
31
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
32
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
32
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
33

The Morocco Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Morocco and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Morocco's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Morocco's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Morocco's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Morocco, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Morocco Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Moroccan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Morocco through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Morocco Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Morocco and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Morocco, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Morocco over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Morocco country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Moroccan Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Morocco.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Morocco's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Morocco's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express