Business Monitor International


Mexico Retail Report

Published 20 June 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View : Mexico's retail market continues to attract international retailers and investment due to its growing middle class and growth opportunities. Positive demographic trends such as the growth of the key young adult population bracket as well as the rise of household spending will further drive the growth of the retail sector. However the rise of informal vendors in the country is expected to continue chipping away at the overall growth of the retail market.

BMI forecasts total household spending will rise from USD323bn in 2015 to USD 426bn in 2018. In addition, the middle class continues to grow with 23% of households estimated to earn above USD25,000 in 2015. By 2018, this figure is expected to grow to 34%. Retail sales will be driven by the growth of wealth and rise in consumer spending power. Furthermore, Mexico's strong demographic forecast will aid this trend. BMI projects that the labour force will continue to grow into the end of BMI's forecast period in 2018, averaging about 1.4% growth. The unemployment rate will continue to fall, dropping to 3.5% in 2016 but rising slightly to 4% by 2018.

Mexico's retail landscape is a mix of traditional village shops and modern, organized retail department stores. Currently, 2.3 million small vendors supply Mexico's traditional street markets where sellers vend everything from designer jeans to cell phones to kitchen appliances. These markets offer merchandise at a lower price point without tax, but can also offer used or contraband goods. The National Chamber of Cargo Trucking estimates that 8% of goods sold in the informal market are stolen from trucks. Mexico's statistics center reports that 60% of the population participated in the informal market, buying or selling merchandise. However, with the growth of net household income, forecasted at USD21,795 in 2015 and expected to rise to USD27,890 in 2018, more consumers will have the financial means to participate in the formal retail market and move...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Headline Retail Forecast
10
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Retail Sector Forecast
17
Food And Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
19
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
20
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
22
Personal Care And Effects
22
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
25
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
27
Demographic Forecast
27
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Retail Formats
42
Retail Subsectors
43
Fashion
45
Pharmacies
45
Tourism
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Department Stores
47
MGR
47
Consumer Electronics
49
Fashion
49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc