Business Monitor International


Mexico Retail Report

Published 04 September 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View: The Mexican retail sector looks set to remain one of the strongest in Latin America as opportunities for foreign investment will be aided by a growth in household spending. We forecast that total household spending will continue to increase over the next four years, bolstered by accelerated job creation and a rebound in consumer confidence as the country continues to make its recovery.

Numerous Free Trade Agreements have encouraged foreign investment in Mexico boosting trade and investment, which means that the economy is relatively well developed in Latin America as is the retail sector. Entering 2015, food and drink, transport and education are three largest subsectors of the retail sector however we expect to see promising growth in other retail subsectors. Specifically, we anticipate the following sectors to increase their percentage of total household spending: clothing and footwear, furnishing and home spending, and recreation and culture spending. One important reason that we expect to see growth in these sectors is due to consumers making luxury and non-essential purchases beyond basic goods and amenities as a result of rising incomes. Furthermore, effective advertising and promotions are increasingly influencing demand for consumables in these sectors.

The proportion of the population earning above USD25,000 will rise by 45% by the time we reach 2019 and currently nearly 70% of the population earn over USD10,000. This trend, reinforced by the creation of more jobs, is causing disposable incomes to rise and as a result, consumer demand is being refocused upon non-essential items. We can see evidence that investment in these areas will be increasing in 2015 as we expect to see a number of fashion companies, who already have outlets in the country- such as H&M, open new stores. There will also be a small number of new entrants this year for example, American toy distributer American Girl are expanding into Mexico with the opening of two...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Headline Retail Forecast
10
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Retail Sector Forecast
17
Food And Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
19
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
20
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
22
Personal Care And Effects
22
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
25
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
27
Demographic Forecast
27
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Retail Formats
42
Retail Subsectors
43
Fashion
45
Pharmacies
45
Tourism
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Department Stores
47
MGR
47
Consumer Electronics
49
Fashion
49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc