Business Monitor International


Mexico Retail Report

Published 05 March 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View: Mexico's retail sector is booming, with healthy economic growth ensuring that 80% of households will be in the middle-income wage bracket of US$10,000+ by 2018. Six out of 12 headline retail sectors will average double-digit growth over the 2014-2018 period, buoyed by a large population that shows no sign of slowing down. Health spending, however, is the underperformer by quite a way, with spending growth to contract by 3.4% per annum.

Mexico's economy is str ong, with real GDP growth of 3.5 % anticipated for 2014 - above the global average of 3.2%. This is a marked improvement from the 1.5 % estimated for 2013, with economic growth set to average 3.7% between 2014 and 2018. This will be helped by h igher public and social investment in Mexico's 2014 budget, which is to be 8.8% higher than 2013 levels. The country has the second-largest population in Latin America, and bucks the global trend in terms of household size. Most develo ped and developing countries are witnessing a contraction in household size , while Mexico's is to remain static over the forecast period, at four persons per dwelling.

Personal care & effects is to be the outperformer over the 2014-2018 period, with spending growth to average 15.9% per annum. Health spending is the only headline retail sector set to suffer a contraction, declining by 3.4% per annum, a fact that could be linked to the country's obesity epidemic. According to the UN 's Food and Agricultural Organis ation , almost 33% of the Mexican population is obese and the country has the world's biggest weight problem. A 'soda tax' has been implemented in a bid to curb the country's health problem; if it works, health spending could increase, although this has the potential to dent spending on non-alcoholic drinks.

Recent Developments:

  • In January 2014, it was reported that US fashion retailer Chico's FAS was to launch its first Mexican store in spring 2014, in an exclusive franchisee deal with El...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
19
Retail Sector Forecast
21
Food And Drink
22
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
23
Clothing And Footwear
23
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
24
Household Goods
24
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
25
Personal Care And Effects
26
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
26
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
28
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
29
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
30
Demographic Forecast
31
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
35
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Economic Analysis
36
Table: MEXICO - GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: Latin America Retail Risk Reward Ratings
42
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
44
Retail Formats
45
Retail Subsectors
46
Fashion
48
Pharmacies
48
Tourism
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Department Stores
50
MGR
50
Consumer Electronics
51
Fashion
52
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
52
Glossary
54
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
64
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
67

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc