Business Monitor International


Mexico Power Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 77 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Power Report

BMI View:   The outlook for Mexico ' s power sector is good . Generation will rise by around 3.8% year on year in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015, driven by strong growth in manufacturing and construction output, and in household demand for electricity. Growth in the power sector will be facilitated by an expansion of Mexico ' s gas-fired capacity, which will draw in imports of natural gas from the US . Renewables and hydropower will also grow healthily as the government offers various incentives to producers of clean energy. In the longer term, the electricity market will benefit hugely from a package of reforms which allow for the generation  and transmission by private operators, after 76 years of monopoli s ation by the Mexican state.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In July, the senate passed the secondary legislation needed to translate the proposed energy reforms into a workable framework and set of legal processes, with a few minor amendments. This allows the government to proceed with the implementation of the energy reforms.

  • In expectation of parliamentary approval, the government is creating a new set of regulations and a regulatory body mandated to ensure the correct implementation of the new energy reforms. The national energy control centre (Cenace), which is currently part of CFE, is being transformed into an independent system operator with new powers to regulate the electricity market, while the Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos will oversee the hydrocarbons sector.

  • As the lengthy political and legislative process behind the energy reforms draws to a close, various foreign investors have signalled their intention to enter the Mexican power sector. In June, for example, the Spanish power giant Iberdrola outlined announced plans to invest USD5bn in various energy sector projects between now and 2018.

  • Meanwhile, the government raised its ambitions in the field of renewables. At the Fifth Clean Energy Ministerial in Seoul in May, the energy...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Mexico Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 2 (Mexico 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
36
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
36
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
37
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
38
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
38
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
39
Table: Mexico Transmission Lines, As Of March 2013
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
48
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
50
Market Overview
52
Key Policies And Market Structure
52
Regulation and Competition
52
Sustainable Energy Policies
53
Pricing
55
Mexico Power Projects Database
55
Table: Mexico Major Projects - Power
55
Competitive Landscape
59
Comisi-n Federal de Electricidad
59
Iberdrola
60
Union Fenosa
60
Regional Overview
61
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Mexico Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Mexico Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Mexico's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc