Business Monitor International

Mexico Power Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 77 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Mexico Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Mexico ' s power sector has improved dramatically following constitutional changes which open up energy to private investment after 76 years of monopoli s ation by the state. P arliament is finali s ing the secondary legislation that will define the precise terms on which private operators can enter the market. Once this is passed Mexico will offer manifold opportunities for new entrants in activities such as exploration, production, refining, transport, storage and distribution of energy. This will potentially provide a mas sive boost to energy production - particu larly oil, shale and renewables - bringing it into line with consumption. In turn, this will provide a welcome boost to the development of Mexican industry, which has been held back by the cost and difficulty of getting energy. In the short term, macroeconomic and sector-specific fundamentals will converge to drive growth in 2014, not least ambitious plans to install mid-stream infrastructure and ramp up gas-fired generation capacity so as to benefit from greater volumes of cheap US gas.

In December 2013, the Mexican Congress approved the government's proposed energy reforms. The package of measures has the potential to be a game-changer for Mexico's energy sector. Assuming Congress can agree on the needed secondary legislation, an opening up of the sector to private and foreign investors will help secure investment in much-needed electricity generation capacity, while gradual deregulation will drive down prices and bolster energy production, reversing a decade of decline.

In the short term, a host of macroeconomic and sector-specific fundamentals also have the potential to drive growth in electricity generation and consumption. Real GDP growth will accelerate from 1.5% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014 as many of the economic headwinds that weighed on the sector begin to dissipate. This rebound in growth will be driven by stronger manufacturing and construction, which...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Mexico Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 2 (Mexico 2018-2023)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
Table: Mexico Transmission Lines, As Of March 2013
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Mexico Power Projects Database
Table: Mexico Major Projects - Power
Competitive Landscape
Comisi-n Federal de Electricidad
Union Fenosa
Regional Overview
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Mexico Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Mexico Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Mexico's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc