Business Monitor International


Mexico Power Report

Published 06 February 2014

  • 77 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Power Report

BMI View: While we emphasise that much will depend on secondary legislation, the passage of Mexico's long-awaited Energy Bill could potentially unlock greater private investment in the domestic energy sector and buoy the country's broader economic trajectory. To this end, although reform of the oil and gas sector has dominated the headlines, we are cautiously optimistic that breaking state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE)'s quasi-monopolistic position in the power sector - in order to attract greater private investment - could ultimately drive down electricity prices and prevent higher costs from undermining Mexico's attempts to position itself as a global manufacturing hub. While we note that the broader economy performed poorly over 2013, we maintain that macroeconomic and sector-specific fundamentals will converge to drive growth in 2014; not least ambitious plans to install mid-stream infrastructure and ramp-up gas-fired generation capacity so as to benefit from greater volumes of cheap US gas.

On December 12 2013, the Mexican Congress pushed through energy reform, with the Chamber of Deputies (the country's lower house) voting to pass the landmark bill just two days after it cleared the Senate. While the implications of reform will be difficult to judge until secondary legislation is enacted in early 2014, BMI's Oil & Gas team believe the bill has the potential to be a game-changer for Mexico's hydrocarbons sector. While we remain cautiously optimistic and believe that opening up the sector will take time, we note that after almost a decade of plunging oil production, the reform could ultimately begin to draw the necessary foreign investment into Mexico and bolster hydrocarbons output - something that could also have huge implications for the broader economy and the power sector.

In this context, we reiterate that Mexico's power sector has long been ripe for overhaul and plans to introduce greater competition into the electricity market...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Mexico Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
15
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
17
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
18
Electricity Consumption
39
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
39
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2018-2023
40
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
41
Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
41
Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
41
Table: Mexico Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
41
Table: Mexico Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
42
Table: Mexico Transmission Lines, As Of March 2013
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
49
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
53
Key Policies And Market Structure
53
Regulation and Competition
53
Sustainable Energy Policies
55
Pricing
57
Mexico Power Projects Database
57
Table: Mexico Major Projects - Power
57
Competitive Landscape
61
Comisi-n Federal de Electricidad
61
Iberdrola
62
Union Fenosa
62
Regional Overview
63
Industry Trend Analysis
63
Glossary
70
Table: Glossary Of Terms
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sources
74
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
74
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
75
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Mexico Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Mexico Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Mexico's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc