Business Monitor International


Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Published 18 August 2014

  • 102 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   We believe that the current Mexican energy sector reform marks the start of a fundamental paradigm shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Although it will take a number of years before results are felt in the country's production and reserves dat a, over the long term this will bolster investment and could reverse a nearly decade-long decline in oil production.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,910.6 2,882.5 2,866.5 2,857.0 2,854.0 2,857.3 2,885.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,360.8 1,371.7 1,382.7 1,393.7 1,404.9 1,416.1 1,433.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,144.5 2,166.0 2,220.2 2,275.7 2,332.6 2,391.0 2,438.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 54.0 53.4 53.7 54.8 55.3 55.9 56.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 68.6 69.3 71.4 74.6 78.0 81.5 85.1
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

  • In July 2014, Mexico's Senate approved a number of laws opening up the oil and gas industry and end the monopoly of state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The second legislation packag e , which is need ed to implement these changes, is expected to be passed by Congress by early August 2014, according to Institutional Revolutionary Party senator David Penchyna. However, considering multiple delays that have already occurred in the process, further postponements could be expected.

  • In May 2014, US oil company Chevron and Mexico's Pemex were holding talks over exploration opportunities in deepwater, shallow water or shale, according to Chevron's president of Latin America and Africa, Ali Moshiri. We expect more major oil and gas companies to show interest in Mexico as the country finalises the secondary legislation of its energy sector.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Mexico Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Mexico Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: Mexico Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Mexico Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Gas Supply And Demand
26
Table: Mexico Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
26
Table: Mexico Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
27
Table: Cost Per Well, USDmn
30
Refining And Oil Products Trade
33
Table: Mexico Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
33
Table: Mexico Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
33
Revenues/Import Costs
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
39
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
44
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Mexico - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Mexico Upstream Rating - Overview
47
Mexico Upstream Rating - Risks And Rewards
47
Mexico Downstream Rating - Overview
48
Mexico Downstream Rating - Risks and Rewards
48
Market Overview
49
Mexico Energy Market Overview
49
Overview
49
Government Policy
49
Licensing And Regulation
51
Table: 1st Bidding Round: Southern Region
51
Table: 2nd Bidding Round - Northern Region
52
Table: 3rd Bid Round - Chicontepec
52
International Energy Relations
53
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
57
Table: Mexico - Upstream Projects Database
57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
58
Oil Refineries
58
Table: Downstream Projects
59
Service Stations
60
Oil Storage Facilities
61
Oil Terminals/Ports
61
Oil Pipelines
61
LNG Terminals
61
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
62
Gas Pipelines
64
Competitive Landscape
66
Competitive Landscape Summary
66
Table: Key Energy Players
67
Table: Upstream Players
67
Table: Downstream Players
67
Company Profile
68
Petr-leos Mexicanos (Pemex)
68
Repsol
74
Other Summaries
77
Regional Overview
79
Latin America Overview
79
Global Industry Overview
89
Global Energy Market Overview
89
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
91
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
92
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
93
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
95
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
95
Appendix
98
Latin America - Regional Appendix
98
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
98
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Mexico - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
111
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Source
117
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
119
Table: Weighting
120

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc