BMI View: We expect Mexico's mining sector to experience steady growth in the coming years as mining companies are attracted to large precious and base metals resources. We forecast the value of Mexico's mining sector to grow to US$16.0bn by 2017. The country will benefit from a stable business environment and favourable mining regulations, though drug-related violence may pose a threat to junior miners.
| Consistent Growth Ahead |
|Mexico - Mining Industry Value & Growth (%)|
Copper production in Mexico will continue to be driven by Grupo Mexico's three major mines - Buenavista, Cuajone, and Ray. Buenavista alone produced 200kt of copper in 2012, a 16% increase over 2011,. We expect junior and mid-tier miners will also seek to develop copper projects as market prices remain elevated by historical standards. Projects such as Stockport Exploration's La Morena copper-gold mine remain in the early stages but could attract interest from larger mining investors. That said, the lack of existing, large deposits suggests that growth in actual copper output will be modest over our forecast period, especially compared to other large copper mining countries such as Chile and Peru.
We caution that there remain risks to our metals production forecasts. Mexico's growth potential is restricted by continued violence in the country, relating to the drug trade, as well as relatively high levels of corruption and a fairly inflexible labour market. However, we do not expect the Mexican government to enact unfavourable mining sector policies, and believe that any implementation of mining royalties will not unduly hurt the sector's competitiveness.
The Mexico Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Mexico Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Mexico.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.