BMI View: Expansion in the automotive, manufacturing, construction, and oil and gas sectors, all of which rely on steel and other refined metals for input s , will encourage steady production and consumption growth in Mexico's metal sector to 2018. Domestic steel producers will contend with cheaper foreign imports and US duties on Mexican exports , yet investment into and output from the sector is unlikely to face significant downside risks.
Solid macroeconomic fundamentals in Mexico over the next five years will underpin production and consumption growth of Mexican refined metals production, particularly steel. While weaker-than-expected real private consumption growth throughout most of H214 has led us to downgrade economic growth in 2015 to 3.5% from 3.7%, continued recovery in the automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors will support the steel industry. Moreover, we forecast average annual real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2016-2018. These factors should ensure Mexico remains the second-largest producer and consumer of steel in Latin America, behind Brazil.
| Increasing Investment To Support Manufacturing Sector Expansion |
|Mexico - FDI Into The Manufacturing Sector|
Mexico's auto sector in particular will continue to attract investment and see production growth given its exposure to the US, the world's largest autos market, and Latin America, which will see growing demand for autos. Reforms to the country's energy sector lead us to forecast an uptick in oil and gas infrastructure investment and therefore increased consumption of steel used in pipelines and other equipment. We recognize the potential is large, and will thus monitor investment into the country's oil and gas industry, as well as a concurrent uptick in production and consumption trends, over the coming quarters.
| Auto Production Gaining Speed |
|Mexico - Vehicle Production & Growth|
Steel To Dominate Metals Sector
Steelmaking will dominate Mexico's refined metal industry,...
The Mexico Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Mexico.
BMI's Mexico Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Mexico.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexico metals market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).