Business Monitor International


Mexico Freight Transport Report

Published 02 April 2014

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Freight Transport Report

We have upgraded our 10-year average real GDP growth from 3.8% to 4.1%, following the passage of energy sector reform, which we expect will garner significant foreign investment in the coming years. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.

The latest release of GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the third quarter of 2013. In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.8% in 2014, to reach 108.05mn tonnes.

  • Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.3% in 2014, to reach 517.102mn tonnes.

  • Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.6% in 2014, to reach 118,248mn tonnes.

  • Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 is estimated to hit 7.2% growth to reach 30.8mn tonnes.

Key Trends And Developments

Mexico City In Line For Air Cargo Boost View Related Content : Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport (MEX) is planning a year of cargo recovery in 2014, with the airport set to welcome more freight traffic in Q114, as both Cathay Pacific and IAG Cargo expand their Mexico operations. The growth outlook for Mexico's air freight demand remains robust, driven by the country's expanding economy and growing consumer sector.

Mexico Rail Investment Focus To Boost Freight And Logistics Connections : Investment in Mexico's rail freight network offers to strengthen logistics connections in the country and further diversify the freight transport sector away from road. Economic growth projections for Mexico will place further...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Indusry Forecast
13
Air Freight
13
Table: Air Freight 2011 -2018
15
Road Freight
15
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
17
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
19
Inland Waterway Freight
19
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2011-2018
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
21
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Main Import Partners, 2005-2012
23
Table: Main Export Partners, 2005-2012
24
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Maritime Freight
30
Logistics
32
Rail Freight
33
Air Freight
35
Company Profile
37
Grupo M-xico
37
Kansas City Southern de M-xico
43
Aerotransportes Mas de Carga
49
Political Outlook
51
Domestic Politics
51
Long-Term Political Outlook
54
Table: Table: Political Overview
58
Oil Price Outlook
59
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
59
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
59
Methodology
61
Crude Price Forecasts
62
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
62
Oil Product Price Forecasts
62
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
63
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
64
Weak Demand Persists
65
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
66
Quarterly Prices
70
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
70
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
71
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
73
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
79
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
81
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
81
Risks To Outlook
83
Macroeconomic Forecasts
84
Economic Analysis
84
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
89
Demographic Forecast
90
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
91
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
92
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
93
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95
Sources
96

The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc