We have revised down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, compared to growth of 1.1% in 2013, due to weak private consumption growth in Q114. We believe that following the passage of energy sector reform, the country will garner significant foreign investment in the coming years. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.
In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.
Headline Industry Data
Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.2% in 2014, to reach 106.3mn tonnes.
Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 3% in 2014, to reach 528.4mn tonnes.
Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.8% in 2014, to reach 115.1mn tonnes.
Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 is estimated to hit 6.2%, to reach 30.5mn tonnes.
Key Trends And Developments
BNSF, Ferromex Introduce New Intermodal Service : Freight transportation services provider BNSF and private rail consortium Ferromex (FXE) have rolled out a new rail and road freight service between Chicago in the US and Silao, Mexico, due to have begun May 27 2014.
Qatar Airways Launches Doha-Mexico City Freighter Service : Qatar Airways Cargo was scheduled to begin its new twice-weekly freighter service to Mexico City on June 11 2014. With the new service, the airline is expanding its cargo operations into Latin America. Qatar Airways Cargo will use the Boeing 777 freighter for the service between Doha and Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport.
Hutchison ' s Lazaro Cardenas Expansion Complete : The USD225mn second phase expansion project...
The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.