We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics, which should support freight transport volumes. Nevertheless, as we continue to expect the economy will slow in 2013 on the back of moderating external demand, with the manufacturing sector struggling to gain traction, and potential for a weaker peso to weigh on consumer spending, we have revised down our real GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.0% for 2013.
Headline Industry Data
Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.5% in 2013, to reach 118mn tonnes.
Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.0% in 2013, to reach 506.4mn tonnes.
Air freight tonnes/km forecast to grow 5.2% in 2013, to reach 5.2mn tonnes/km.
Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2013 is estimated to hit 2.1% growth to reach 29.7mn tonnes.
Key Trends And Developments
Autos Boom Driving Freight Volume Growth: As China rebalances its economy towards domestic consumption, and labour costs within the country have risen, a number of developing economies around the world have seen the benefit as their markets have become more attractive to international manufacturing companies. Mexico is one key beneficiary of this trend, with wages now cheaper than in the Asian giant.
US Court Backs US-Mexico Trucking Programme: A federal cross-border trucking programme has been upheld by a ruling of the US Court of Appeals in Washington. The ruling, as per the terms of the programme, will allow trucks operated by select Mexican service providers to operate in the US.
Zim Looks To Mexico And Central America ETR: BMI has recognised the potential support that emerging trade routes (ETRs) would give to the overtonnaged fleet as the sector struggled on the traditional big money routes of Asia-Europe and the transpacific. The latest shipping company to increase its exposure to one such route is Israeli firm Zim, which is...
The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.