We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Mexico from 3.5% to 3.9% in 2014. The latest release of GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2013. In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. Although we estimated real GDP growth of just 1.6% for Mexico in 2013, we expect an acceleration in economic growth in 2014, underpinned by a recovering manufacturing sector and a pick-up in fixed investment, following earlier delays.
Headline Industry Data
Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.6% in 2014, to reach 107.9mn tonnes.
Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.3% in 2014, to reach 522.108mn tonnes.
Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.2% in 2014, to reach 120.157mn tonnes.
Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 is estimated to hit 4.4% growth to reach 22.5mn tonnes.
Key Trends And Developments
Military Takes Over Drug Port, Causes Downside Risk
The decision to have Mexico's military take over operations at the Pacific port of Lazaro Cardenas presents downside risks to the facility's container throughput levels, with experienced port staff being dismissed and replaced with navy personnel. The military's crackdown on drug-related activity at the port will be a short-term threat to throughput, with Lazaro Cardenas still set to benefit from the investment and expertise of global port operators APM Terminals and HPH over the medium to long term.
DHL Raises Stake In Mexico
DHL Express is raising its stake in Mexico. The company has invested millions of dollars in its Latin American operations in recent months, including US$25mn for its hub in Mexico City and more than US$1mn for a new operations centre in Guadalajara, Mexico.
US And Mexico Increasingly Use Rail To Trade
An increasing amount of trade between the US and...
The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.