Business Monitor International


Mexico Food & Drink Report

Published 11 June 2014

  • 179 pages
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$1,295.00
Mexico Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We expect household spending in Mexico to pick up in the coming quarters, as unemployment declines and consumers gradually adapt to new taxes that took effect on January 1. We forecast real private consumption growth to accelerate to 3.1% in 2014, up from 2.5% in 2013. Although the recently introduced tax on sugary drinks and the tax hike on junk food is likely to have a negative impact on the food and drink sector in Mexico in the short term, we maintain a favourable outlook for the domestic consumer, and declining unemployment and rising disposable income will ensure a robust expansion in the sector over the long term. Real private consumption growth will accelerate this year in Mexico as the impact of recent taxes on household spending fades.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +8.6%; forecast 2014 to 2018 = +17.2%

  • 2014 alcoholic drink sales = +7.8%; forecast 2014 to 2018 = +35.3%

  • 2014 soft drink sales = +5.6%; forecast 2014 to 2018 = +24.7%

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +7.4%; forecast 2014 to 2018 = +31.9%

Key Company Trends

FEMSA Investment Plans F or 2014 : In spring 2014 Femsa unveiled plans to invest USD1.35bn in its businesses during 2014. Femsa will invest USD850mn in its beverage operations, opening new factories and incorporating recent acquisitions, with the rest to be invested in its store operations, according to the company.

Walmex To Recover Through 2014 : Walmex is seen as a major bellwether for consumer spending in Mexico. However, it has not fared well over the past year or so, with sales at stores open for more than 12 months (same-store sales) having declined for three successive quarters. The latest setback has been reflected by the 2.4% year-on-year decline for the first-quarter period to end-March 2014. The comparables over the Q2-Q414 period are likely to be easier given the same-store declines in 2013. This, together with a brighter outlook for private...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
19
Food Consumption
19
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Confectionery
20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Prepared/Canned Food
23
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Meat
24
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Fish
26
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
26
Oils And Fats
28
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
28
Pasta
33
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
33
Dairy
34
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
35
Baked Products
39
Table: Baked Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
40
Drink
44
Hot Drinks
44
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
44
Alcoholic Drinks
45
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
45
Soft Drinks
45
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2011-2018
46
Table: Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
47
Mass Grocery Retail
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
51
Trade
52
Table: Trade Balance Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
52
Macroeconomic Forecast
53
Economic Analysis
53
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
58
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
59
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
61
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
63
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
64
Market Overview
65
Food
65
Food Processing
65
Confectionery
65
Organics
67
Prepared/Canned Food
67
Dairy
68
Meat
69
Seafood
69
Drink
70
Hot Drinks
70
Alcoholic Drinks
70
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
71
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets
77
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (USDbn)
77
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (MXNbn)
77
Industry Trends And Developments
78
Food
78
Key Industry Trends And Developments
78
Drink
100
Key Industry Trends And Developments
100
Mass Grocery Retail
118
Key Industry Trends And Developments
118
Competitive Landscape
126
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Food Sector
126
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Drink Sector
127
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
127
Company Profile
130
Industrias Bachoco
130
Grupo Herdez
132
Gruma
135
Grupo Bimbo
138
Grupo Modelo
142
Arca Continental
146
FEMSA
151
Walmart De M-xico
155
Controladora Comercial Mexicana
158
Soriana
161
Global Industry Overview
164
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
176
Demographic Forecast
177
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
178
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
179
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
180
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
180
Glossary
181
Food & Drink
181
Mass Grocery Retail
181
Methodology
183
Industry Forecast Methodology
183
Sector-Specific Methodology
184
Sources
184
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
185
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
186
Table: Weighting
187

The Mexico Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Mexico Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Mexico.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc