Business Monitor International


Mexico Autos Report

Published 11 November 2014

  • 73 pages
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$1,295.00
Mexico Autos Report

BMI forecasts 6.0% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of a 6.4% increase in passenger car sales and 5.3% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2015, we project vehicle sales accelerate to 8% spurred by an expansion of 6.5% and 10.8% in the passenger car and CV markets, respectively.

A rebound in private consumption in H214, has helped passenger car sales in Mexico increase 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2014 to 520,484 units. We expect this broader uptick in car purchases to continue through 2014 and into 2015 as retail spending recovers from the shock effect of earlier tax rises and as consumer confidence is boosted by growing employment.

Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 16.2% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2014, to 17,705 units after manufacturing and construction activity came in below expectations in H114, dragging on heavy truck demand. As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 10% decline in heavy truck demand in 2014. However, our Country Risk team expects manufacturing to improve over Q414 and during H115 due to strengthening US demand for imports. We believe this will help truck sales to recover in 2015 with sales growth to reach 11.0%.

In the Light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment (including SUVs), sales growth will   receive a boost from renewed consumer spending in 2014 and 2015; although sales growth will still not reach our previous 2014 forecast. Consequently, we are revising down our 2014 LCV sales forecast from 7.2% to 6.0%   but revising up our 2015 forecast from 9.1% to 11% growth.  

Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 7.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 2,396,308 units. With this new data, we are revising our forecasts for passenger car production to 4.2%, down from 5.8% growth, and we are revising up our forecast for light commercial vehicles (LCV) to 12%, from 5.3%.  Our forecast revisions are informed by our view that exports will continue to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales and Trade
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Production
15
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Passenger Cars - Forecast & Analysis
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
18
Sales
18
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand
19
Production
20
Table: Light Vehicle Production By Brand
21
New Investments
22
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
25
Segment News
27
Motorcycles
28
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
28
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
40
Company Profile
41
Industry Trend Analysis
41
Regional Overview
44
Global Industry Overview
49
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
49
European Growth Gathers Momentum
49
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
51
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
52
Demographic Forecast
55
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
56
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
57
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
58
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
58
Methodology
59
Industry Forecasts
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Mexico Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Mexico.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc