BMI forecasts 6.0% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of a 6.4% increase in passenger car sales and 5.3% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2015, we project vehicle sales accelerate to 8% spurred by an expansion of 6.5% and 10.8% in the passenger car and CV markets, respectively.
A rebound in private consumption in H214, has helped passenger car sales in Mexico increase 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2014 to 520,484 units. We expect this broader uptick in car purchases to continue through 2014 and into 2015 as retail spending recovers from the shock effect of earlier tax rises and as consumer confidence is boosted by growing employment.
Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 16.2% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2014, to 17,705 units after manufacturing and construction activity came in below expectations in H114, dragging on heavy truck demand. As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 10% decline in heavy truck demand in 2014. However, our Country Risk team expects manufacturing to improve over Q414 and during H115 due to strengthening US demand for imports. We believe this will help truck sales to recover in 2015 with sales growth to reach 11.0%.
In the Light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment (including SUVs), sales growth will receive a boost from renewed consumer spending in 2014 and 2015; although sales growth will still not reach our previous 2014 forecast. Consequently, we are revising down our 2014 LCV sales forecast from 7.2% to 6.0% but revising up our 2015 forecast from 9.1% to 11% growth.
Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 7.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 2,396,308 units. With this new data, we are revising our forecasts for passenger car production to 4.2%, down from 5.8% growth, and we are revising up our forecast for light commercial vehicles (LCV) to 12%, from 5.3%. Our forecast revisions are informed by our view that exports will continue to...
The Mexico Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Mexico.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.