Business Monitor International


Mexico Agribusiness Report

Published 10 September 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Overall, the long-term outlook for the Mexican agriculture sector looks less optimistic than previous years. Consumer demand growth is largely slowing, particularly in key areas like sugar and corn , where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, pa rticularly in the grains and livestock sector. Although we forecast a rebound in production for key sectors like corn and meat, we have a largely subdued long-term production outlook for these sectors, as cheap US imports, lower prices, and distortions due to government intervention reduce production incentives. We see the strongest growth potential in the poultry and coffee sectors, as Mexico remains a key coffee exporter and poultry consumption looks to show the strongest growth. We expect improving growth in the country's sugar sector, as the government has recently implemented reforms, however, compared to large global exporters, Mexico's impact on the global market will remain relatively minimal.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 11% to 24.5mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years, and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8% to 4.9mn tonnes. We believe sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates.

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 35% to 5.0mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help boost production. However, growth is largely due to base effects.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.1% (up from 1.1% in 2013; predicted to average 3.6% to 2018).

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: MEXICO Wheat Production & Consumption
14
Table: MEXICO Corn Production & Consumption
14
Table: MEXICO Barley Production & Consumption
14
Table: MEXICO Wheat Production & Consumption
17
Table: MEXICO Corn Production & Consumption
18
Table: MEXICO Barley Production & Consumption
18
Sugar Outlook
19
Table: MEXICO Sugar Production & Consumption
20
Table: MEXICO Sugar Production & Consumption
24
Dairy Outlook
24
Coffee Outlook
29
Table: MEXICO Coffee Production & Consumption
30
Table: MEXICO Coffee Production & Consumption
34
Rice Outlook
34
Table: MEXICO Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
35
Table: MEXICO Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
37
Livestock Outlook
37
Table: MEXICO Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
39
Table: MEXICO Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
39
Table: MEXICO Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
39
Table: MEXICO Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
44
Table: MEXICO Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
44
Table: MEXICO Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
44
Commodities Price Analysis
46
Monthly Softs Update
46
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
57
Monthly Grains Update
57
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
65
Upstream Analysis
67
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
67
Americas GM Outlook
71
Americas Machinery Outlook
77
Downstream Analysis
83
Food
83
Food Consumption
83
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Confectionery
84
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2010-2017
85
Prepared/Canned Food
86
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Meat
87
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Fish
88
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Oils And Fats
89
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Pasta
92
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Dairy
93
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
93
Baked Products
96
Table: Baked Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
96
Drink
98
Hot Drinks
98
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
99
Alcoholic Drinks
99
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
100
Soft Drinks
100
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2010-2017
101
Table: Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
101
Mass Grocery Retail
103
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
104
Competitive Landscape
105
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
105
Demographic Forecast
106
Demographic Outlook
106
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Methodology
111

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Mexico.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Mexico Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc