Business Monitor International


Mexico Agribusiness Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Overall, the long-term outlook for the Mexican agriculture sector looks less optimistic than previous years. Consumer demand growth is largely slowing, particularly in key areas like sugar and corn where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, particularly in the sugar, grains, and livestock sector. Although we forecast a rebound in production for key sectors like corn and meat, we have a largely subdued production outlook for these sectors, as cheap US imports, lower prices, and distortions due to government intervention reduce production incentives. We see the strongest growth potential in the poultry and coffee sectors, as Mexico remains a key coffee exporter and poultry consumption looks to show the strongest growth. However, even our coffee production forecasts have been downgraded recently due to disease concerns.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 11% to 24.5mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8% to 5mn tonnes. We believe sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates.

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 35% to 5mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help to boost production. However, growth is largely due to base effects.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 4.1% (up from 1.5% in 2013; predicted to average 3.8% to 2018).

  • Consumer price inflation (average): 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (compared to 3.8% in 2013).

Industry Trends And Developments

We...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Mexico Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Mexico Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Mexico Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
15
Table: Mexico Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
15
Sugar Outlook
16
Table: MEXICO Sugar Production & Consumption
17
Table: Obesity Rates By Country/Region
20
Table: MEXICO Sugar Production & Consumption
21
Dairy Outlook
21
Table: MEXICO Butter Production & Consumption
23
Table: MEXICO Cheese Production & Consumption
23
Table: MEXICO Milk Production & Consumption
24
Table: MEXICO Butter Production & Consumption
26
Table: MEXICO Cheese Production & Consumption
26
Table: MEXICO Milk Production & Consumption
26
Coffee Outlook
27
Table: MEXICO Coffee Production & Consumption
28
Table: MEXICO Coffee Production & Consumption
30
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: MEXICO Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
33
Table: MEXICO Pork Production & Consumption
33
Table: MEXICO Poultry Production & Consumption
33
Table: MEXICO Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
41
Table: MEXICO Pork Production & Consumption
42
Table: MEXICO Poultry Production & Consumption
42
Commodities Price Analysis
44
Monthly Grains Update
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
52
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
53
Monthly Softs Update
54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
61
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
62
Upstream Analysis
63
Americas Machinery Outlook
63
Americas GM Outlook
69
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
74
Downstream Analysis
80
Food
80
Food Consumption
80
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
81
Confectionery
81
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
83
Prepared/Canned Food
83
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Meat
84
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
85
Fish
86
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
86
Oils And Fats
87
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Pasta
90
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Dairy
91
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
91
Baked Products
94
Table: Baked Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
95
Drink
97
Hot Drinks
97
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
97
Alcoholic Drinks
98
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
98
Soft Drinks
98
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2010-2017
99
Table: Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
100
Mass Grocery Retail
101
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
103
Competitive Landscape
104
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
104
Regional Overview
105
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
113
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
114
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Sector-Specific Methodology
116

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Mexico.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Mexico Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc