Business Monitor International


MENA Mining Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 71 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
MENA Mining Report

We expect to see strong growth in the mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa over the coming years. With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significant resources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as key areas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues to underperform due to political instability in much of the region.

The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Western powers. Our core scenario is for negotiations to continue and for limited sanctions relief to be rolled over until 2015. This will benefit the mining sector as it is one of the beneficiaries of an easing of sanctions. On the upside, if negotiations are successful (which we currently give a likelihood of 25%), it will be a game changer for the country's beleaguered mining industry and could make the country a key centre of global mining investment in the coming years.

Iran To Remain Out Front
Middle East - Mining Industry Value (USDbn)

The key area for growth in the MENA region will be in gold. Although we are forecasting lower average gold prices over the coming quarters, we expect prices to remain elevated by historical standards. Given the relatively low cash costs for gold production, as well as low base effects, we expect to see substantial growth rates over the coming years.

The majority of capacity additions in phosphates coming years will be coming from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia began diammonium phosphate (DAP) production in 2011 and will reach the steady-state production rate of 3mnt (mn tonnes) DAP by 2015. The Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) will also be adding significant new capacity to the market between 2013 and 2015. As producers from Saudi Arabia and Morocco generally sit on the left side of the cost curve, some high-cost capacity (typically Chinese...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Turkey: Mining Reforms Continue To Bear Fruit
10
Table: Turkey - Select Gold Projects
10
Table: Turkey - Gold Production
12
Iran: Tentative Signs Of An Opening For Mining Sector
12
Table: Iran - Mineral Reserves
13
Iraq: Turning To Gold For Riches
16
Egypt: Improving Political Stability To Bolster Mining Investment
18
Table: Egypt - Select Mining Projects
19
Table: Egypt - Gold Production
20
Saudi Arabia: Gold No Threat To Black Gold
20
Table: Saudi Arabia - Major Gold Projects
21
Growth To Slow Substantially As Mines Close
22
Table: Ma'aden - Current Mines Details
23
Lower Prices Present Small Risk
23
Table: Saudi Arabia - Gold Production
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: MENA - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
26
Regulatory Development
29
Commodities Forecast
32
Commodity Strategy
32
Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight
32
Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside
34
Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely
35
Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost
36
Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way
37
Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further
38
Tin: In A Sweet Spot
39
Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture
40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Competitive Landscape
43
Table: MENA - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies
43
Company Profile
45
Kasbah Resources
45
Table: Kasbah Resources - Financial Performance
46
Maya Gold & Silver
48
Table: Maya Gold & Silver - Financial Results
50
Regional Overview
51
MENA Overview
51
Saudi & Iran: Government Estimates Overblown
52
Table: Largest Mining Projects In MENA
53
Egypt: Political Risks To Ease
53
Iraq: A Bright Spot In The Region
53
Morocco: Potential For Tin Mining
54
Global Industry Overview
55
Challenges
55
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
59
Cause For Optimism
62
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
70
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The MENA Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's MENA Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc