We forecast that the Mauritian economy will grow by 3.6% in 2014, and by 4.0% in 2015. While this would represent a stronger growth rate than that seen over the past two years - real GDP increased by 3.3% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2013 - our 2014 forecast has been downgraded since last quarter.
The Key Repo Rate will be maintained at its current rate of 4.65% through the remainder of 2014, as inflationary pressures remain benign and first quarter real GDP growth disappointed.
We forecast that Mauritius's current account deficit will narrow from 9.9% of GDP to just 6.6% in 2014, followed by a further narrowing in 2015 when we forecast that the deficit will account for just 5.7% of GDP.
Major Forecast Changes
Our 2014 real GDP growth forecast has been downgraded from last quarter's projection of 3.8%, to 3.6%. This is on the back of poor first quarter results and a struggling construction industry.
Risks To Outlook
While we expect a recovery of sorts to take hold in the eurozone from 2014 onwards, a significant deterioration in conditions would pose notable risks to our growth outlook given Mauritius's exposure to the region.
Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mauritius 2012-2018)
| Indicator || 2012e || 2013e || 2014f || 2015f || 2016f || 2017f || 2018f |
| Nominal GDP, USDbn || 11.4 || 11.9 || 12.5 || 13.5 || 14.7 || 16.0 || 17.4 |
| Real GDP growth, % y-o-y || 3.3 || 3.2 || 3.6 || 4.0 || 4.2 || 4.3 || 4.4 |
| Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop || 3.2 || 4.0 || 3.5 || 4.0 || 4.5 || 4.4 || 4.5 |
| Exchange rate MUR/USD, eop || 30.55 || 30.00 || 30.10 || 29.75 || 29.50 || 29.40 || 29.30 |
| Budget balance, % of GDP || -2.5 || -3.6 || -3.3 || -2.8 || -2.6 || -2.4 || -2.1 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP || -10.3 || -9.9 || -6.6 || -5.7 || -5.8 || -5.7 || -5.2 |
| e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources |
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Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Opposition Split Potential Setback For Reform
Table: 2010 Legislative Election Results
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
GDP Growth Accelerating
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Rate Hike Expected By Year-End
Tax Uncertainty Potential Drag On Growth
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
Growth Increasingly Polarised
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
Tab le: Emerging Markets , Rea l GDP Growt h, %
The Mauritius Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mauritius and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Mauritius' economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Mauritius' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Mauritius' country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Mauritius, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Mauritius Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.
How will the Mauritian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Mauritius through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Mauritius Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Mauritius and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Mauritius, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Mauritius over the next 5-years?
BMI's Mauritius country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Mauritian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Mauritius.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Mauritius' risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Benchmark Mauritius' risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.