BMI remains fairly bullish about the Malaysian economy. Growth is being driven by strong domestic demand and continuing reforms under the government's Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). GDP was up by 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter led by manufacturing, construction, and services. We are also encouraged by an increasing private sector share of gross fixed capital investment (specially strong in electrical and electronics sector output). Private consumption passed the 50% of GDP watershed in 2013 (reaching 51.2%) after having slumped to only 41.6% following the Asian economic crisis. We think it will continue rising, reflecting the government's successful efforts to free up the country's business environment. We are predicting 4.5% GDP growth in 2014, easing back to 4.2% in 2015. The slowdown will in part reflect limits on export growth posed by a stronger currency and weaker regional demand (particularly from China and Japan). We expect import growth (5.8%) to outstrip export growth (3.0%) this year.
We maintain a positive outlook for the country's major ports (Port Klang and Port Tanjung Pelepas), largely as a result of expansion projects and developments within the past year. While we still expect most ports to lag, rather than lead GDP percentage growth, box traffic at the major ports should see significant growth in 2014 and beyond.
Headline Industry Data
The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by 4.4% in 2014. Growth in 2015 should again rise to 4.5%.
Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 0.3% to 199.54mn tonnes in 2014, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by 3.0% to 126.36mn tonnes.
2014 box traffic at Port Klang is projected to rise 6.2% to 10.993mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas a gain of 3.3% to 7.881mn TEUs is expected.
Key Industry Trends
Better Charter Rates Lift Maybulk Profits: Malaysian Bulk Carriers (Maybulk) more than doubled...
The Malaysia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Malaysia.
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Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.