Business Monitor International


Malaysia Power Report

Published 21 August 2014

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Power Report

BMI View :   We have maintained our 2014 electricity generation growth forecast for Malaysia this quarter and expect growth to be primarily driven by thermal generation. However, we have made a slight moderation to our long-term forecasts due to progress in a number of major thermal projects.

We are maintaining our 2014 electricity generation growth forecast for Malaysia at 4.6% as our underlying economic and sector views remain in play. Growth will be concentrated primarily in the thermal generation sector, and the non-hydropower renewables sector to a lesser extent.

We have made several revisions to our long-term forecasts for electricity generation in Malaysia this quarter to account for progress in several large-scale thermal projects. These revisions resulted in a slight moderation to our overall forecast.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Project 4A, a 1,000MW gas-fired plant, was initially awarded to YTL Power on May 31 via a directly negotiated basis, but YTL chose to withdraw from the MYR3bn project following concerns about preferential treatment.

  • On January 1 2014, Malaysian state-owned utility Tenaga Nasional hiked retail electricity prices in Peninsular Malaysia by 15% and prices in the state of Sabah and the territory of Labuan by 16.9%. The revision only affects customers using more than 300kWh per month and represent about 30% of electricity users in the country.

  • The first liquefied natural gas regasification (LNG) terminal started operating in Melaka LNG near Sungai Udang in early 2013 and received its first cargo in April. 

  • The government introduced a number of policies and incentives for renewable energy producers.

  • The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Malaysia Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Malaysia 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Malaysia Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2017)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2018-2023)
20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2018-2023)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Malaysia 2018-2023)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
27
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Malaysia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Rewards
30
Risks
31
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Regulation And Competition
32
Sustainable Energy Policies
33
Pricing
34
Malaysia Power Projects Database
35
Table: Malaysia Major Projects - Power
35
Competitive Landscape
40
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)
41
Syarikat SESCO Berhad (SESCO)
41
Sabah Electricity Supply Sdn Bhd (SESB)
42
Malakoff
42
Powertek
43
YTL Power
43
Company Profile
44
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)
44
Syarikat SESCO Berhad
47
Regional Overview
49
Asia Regional Overview
49
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
57
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Terms
59
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Malaysia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Malaysia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Malaysia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc