Business Monitor International


Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 134 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Malaysia's upstream segment could see better days ahead in the short-to-medium term as the completion of both greenfield and brownfield developments brings new volumes of oil and gas online. New gas supplies will underpin continued expansion in the country's liquefied natural gas production based in Sarawak. Consumption growth will limit some of the export gains to be made from growing output, though a reduction of oil and gas subsidies would see a slowdown in the rate of this. The expansion of its downstream capacity could be more challenging, as it would face fierce competition from neighbouring Singapore.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Malaysia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Our expectations for growth in its oil and gas reserves are underpinned by resource upgrades stemming from exploration and development activities in three areas: deepwater, marginal and stranded fields, and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects in mature fields.

  • Oil and gas production are set to grow, thanks to the development of large discoveries made in recent years. For oil in particular, investment into marginal fields could support a short-term increase in production until larger and more complex deepwater projects come on-stream.

  • We expect oil production to maintain relatively stable in the medium term, from 610,000b/d in 2013 to about 657,890b/d in 2018. Output from marginal fields and EOR on producing fields will support production in the short-term. However, the small scale of these fields means that their development can only sustain the country's output for a limited time. Over the longer term, deepwater and greenfield developments will therefore be necessary to maintain oil production growth past its current expected peak in 2018. At the moment, we see oil production falling slightly post-2018, to reach 635,540b/d by 2023.

  • A string of prolific discoveries and major projects set to come online between 2014 and 2018 would see gas production...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil & Gas Reserves
10
Table: Malaysia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Production, 2012-2017
10
Table: Malaysia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data
11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
16
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
18
Oil Supply And Demand
18
Table: Malaysia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Malaysia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Malaysia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
23
Table: Malaysia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
24
Refining And Oil Products Trade
30
Table: Malaysia Refining - Production & Consumption
30
Table: Malaysia Refining - Production & Consumption
31
Revenues/Imports Costs
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
34
The Upstream Leaders
34
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
37
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Downstream Support
39
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Malaysia - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Malaysia Upstream Rating - Overview
45
Malaysia Upstream Rating - Rewards
45
Malaysia Upstream Rating - Risks
45
Malaysia Downstream Rating - Overview
45
Market Overview
46
Malaysia Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
47
Licensing And Regulation
47
Government Policy
48
International Energy Relations
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
52
Oil Storage Facilities
56
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
57
Oil Terminals/Ports
59
Oil Pipelines
59
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
61
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
61
LNG Import Terminals
62
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
62
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
66
Company Profile
67
Petronas
67
ExxonMobil
77
Shell
80
ConocoPhillips
85
Murphy Oil
89
Other Summaries
93
Regional Overview
97
Asia Overview
97
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
97
Tightening In The Downstream
101
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
105
A Hot Market For LNG
109
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
112
Global Industry Overview
114
Global Energy Market Overview
114
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
116
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
117
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
118
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
120
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
120
Appendix
123
Asia - Regional Appendix
123
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
125
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
125
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
126
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
127
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
128
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
129
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
130
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
130
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
131
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
132
Malaysia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
135
Table: Malaysia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
136
Table: Malaysia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
138
Table: Malaysia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
139
Table: Malaysia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
140
Glossary
142
Table: Glossary Of Terms
142
Methodology
144
Industry Forecast Methodology
144
Source
146
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
146
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
148
Table: Weighting
149

The Malaysia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Malaysia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Malaysia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Malaysia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc