BMI View: Despite significant deposits of untapped minerals and positive reforms by the Malaysian government in recent years, Malaysia's mining sector is unlikely to witness a resource boom over our forecast period to 2018. Depleting reserves and falling ore grades will continue to impede growth in the tin sector, while falling gold prices remove the shine off investment in the gold mining industry.
We forecast Malaysia's mining industry to reach USD41.2bn by 2018, increasing at a clip of 5.0% per annum. Despite significant deposits of untapped minerals and positive reforms by the Malaysian government in recent years, a resource boom is unlikely to catch up with the country anytime soon. In contrast to the relentless pursuit of volume growth over the past decade, mining firms are focusing on the development of their core brownfield assets on the back of the economic slowdown in China. As mineral prices continue to trend lower over the coming quarters, this should put a lid on capital flows into Malaysia's mining space.
| Resource Boom Far Away |
|Malaysia - Mining Industry Value|
In our view, Malaysia's tin mining sector is unlikely to stage a comeback anytime soon. Depleting reserves and falling ore grades will continue to take their toll on production and we forecast tin output to increase at an average rate of 0.5% per annum between 2014 and 2018. Rahman Hydraulic Tin (RHT) will continue to dominate the sector with its largest open-pit tin mine in Malaysia. The miner enjoys significant economies of scale compared with other small, artisanal domestic mines.
| Hard Digging |
|Malaysia - Select Minerals Production (% chg y-o-y)|
We believe the outlook in the gold sector is equally dull. Falling gold prices will deter investors from undertaking new mining investment while weakening margins threaten the financial viability of existing projects. Nonetheless, we do expect a collapse in gold mine production over our forecast period to 2018. Major gold miner Monument Mining...
The Malaysia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Malaysia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Malaysia.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.