BMI View: BMI ' s Q3 2014 Malaysia Metals reports analyses developments taking place across the country's metals sector in light of a slowing Chinese economy and increasing competition between regional base metals producers. We are forecasting production of the country's two main metals products - steel and tin - to continue to grow at a steady clip, supported largely by a strong Malaysia economy and robust levels of domestic demand.
H2 2014 will see Malaysia retain its status as a regional outperformer in terms of metals production with steel output set to increase by 9.1% over the year. We retain a positive outlook towards the Malaysian economy in 2014, which we forecast to expand by 4.4%, while we also expect growth in the National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) to remain relatively robust, lending support to the domestic industry.
In terms of tin production, we expect production levels to return to growth following two years of contracting output, with growth set to come in at 1.8% over the year.
With the Chinese economy set to cool in 2014 (we forecast GDP growth of 6.7%), Malaysian metals producers will be looking to the domestic market to drive demand, rather than imports, with consumption of both steel and tin. We note that the success of Malaysia's electronics industry is reported to be driving an increase in demand for tin in particular with the industry having attracted achieved USD1.5bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) and USD154mn in domestic direct investment (DDI) between January and April 2013.
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|Malaysia, Selected Indicators|
In the steel market, we note that a number of manufacturers are expanding their operations on the back of a clearer demand outlook. Malaysia Steel Works (Masteel) was one of several Malaysian steel mills reported to be expanding its production capacity in H114, with the firm in the process of accelerating the construction of a new 200,000 metric tonnes rolling mill, which is scheduled to be completed in 2015.
The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysia metals market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).