Business Monitor International


Malaysia Metals Report

Published 03 July 2014

  • 49 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Metals Report

BMI View: BMI ' s Q3 2014 Malaysia Metals reports analyses developments taking place across the country's metals sector in light of a slowing Chinese economy and increasing competition between regional base metals producers. We are forecasting production of the country's two main metals products - steel and tin - to continue to grow at a steady clip, supported largely by a strong Malaysia economy and robust levels of domestic demand.

H2 2014 will see Malaysia retain its status as a regional outperformer in terms of metals production with steel output set to increase by 9.1% over the year. We retain a positive outlook towards the Malaysian economy in 2014, which we forecast to expand by 4.4%, while we also expect growth in the National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) to remain relatively robust, lending support to the domestic industry.

In terms of tin production, we expect production levels to return to growth following two years of contracting output, with growth set to come in at 1.8% over the year.

With the Chinese economy set to cool in 2014 (we forecast GDP growth of 6.7%), Malaysian metals producers will be looking to the domestic market to drive demand, rather than imports, with consumption of both steel and tin. We note that the success of Malaysia's electronics industry is reported to be driving an increase in demand for tin in particular with the industry having attracted achieved USD1.5bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) and USD154mn in domestic direct investment (DDI) between January and April 2013.

Plane Sailing
Malaysia, Selected Indicators

In the steel market, we note that a number of manufacturers are expanding their operations on the back of a clearer demand outlook. Malaysia Steel Works (Masteel) was one of several Malaysian steel mills reported to be expanding its production capacity in H114, with the firm in the process of accelerating the construction of a new 200,000 metric tonnes rolling mill, which is scheduled to be completed in 2015.

While...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Metals SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Steel: Domestic Demand Key To High Output
12
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2010-2018)
17
Tin: Production Recovering, But Challenges Remain
17
Table: Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance (Malaysia 2010-2018)
19
Regulatory Development
20
Table: Import Duties - Steel Wire Rods
20
Table: Political Overview
23
Commodities Forecast
25
Monthly Metals Update
25
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
25
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
27
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
28
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
29
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
30
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
31
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
35
Steel Price Forecast
35
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
35
Short-Term Outlook
36
Core View
36
Global Steel Glut To Persist
37
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
37
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
39
Excessive Chinese Exports
41
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
41
Risks To Price Outlook
42
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
43
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Table: Malaysia - Financial Data Of Key Listed Companies
46
Company Profile
48
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
48
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
50
Methodology
51
Cross Checks
51

The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.

BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysia metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc