BMI View: Malaysia has a well developed metals sector and is a leading global producer of both steel and tin, However, local producers have been met with increasing pressure from other markets in recent years, with a sharp uptick in Chinese output levels, in particular, leading to downwards pressure on prices and hence production volumes. Out outlook for both the Malaysia steel and tin sectors is therefore one of caution with production growth expected to be moderate over the next few years.
2014 saw Malaysia's steel producers experience falling output and revenues as a flood of cheap imports squeeze prices and margins. With much of this extra supply arriving in the form of cheap products from countries such as China, Indonesia and South Korea, local producers have found themselves hit by falling orders for hot rolled coils as well as other heavily imported steel products. The impact on local steelmills has been considerable with many firms forced to cut capacity in response to growing oversupply. Malaysia is estimated to have imported almost 1.83mnt of steel from China in 2013, including 924,000 tonnes of wire rods, equivalent to 80% of Malaysia's total import volume of the product.
However, in Q414 it appeared that pressure on the government to raise import tariffs was finally paying with the Malaysia International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) announcing the introduction provisional anti-dumping duties ranging between 3.15% and 29.37% and will be effective not more than 120 days from Oct 17, 2014.
Malaysia's tin sector is in a similar predicament. The country's tin production volume has fluctuated over the past few years as global demand has fallen and risen in line with economic output. While refined tin production in Malaysia has suffered two consecutive years of decline (2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 and estimated 0.5% in 2013).
Nevertheless, both industries face a number of downside risks over 2015. We expect further cooling in the Chinese...
The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysia metals market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).