Business Monitor International


Malaysia Metals Report

Published 17 December 2014

  • 49 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Metals Report

BMI View: Malaysia has a well developed metals sector and is a leading global producer of both steel and tin, However, local producers have been met with increasing pressure from other markets in recent years, with a sharp uptick in Chinese output levels, in particular, leading to downwards pressure on prices and hence production volumes. Out outlook for both the Malaysia steel and tin sectors is therefore one of caution with production growth expected to be moderate over the next few years.

2014 saw Malaysia's steel producers experience falling output and revenues as a flood of cheap imports squeeze prices and margins. With much of this extra supply arriving in the form of cheap products from countries such as China, Indonesia and South Korea, local producers have found themselves hit by falling orders for hot rolled coils as well as other heavily imported steel products. The impact on local steelmills has been considerable with many firms forced to cut capacity in response to growing oversupply. Malaysia is estimated to have imported almost 1.83mnt of steel from China in 2013, including 924,000 tonnes of wire rods, equivalent to 80% of Malaysia's total import volume of the product.

However, in Q414 it appeared that pressure on the government to raise import tariffs was finally paying with the Malaysia International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) announcing the introduction provisional anti-dumping duties ranging between 3.15% and 29.37% and will be effective not more than 120 days from Oct 17, 2014.

Malaysia's tin sector is in a similar predicament. The country's tin production volume has fluctuated over the past few years as global demand has fallen and risen in line with economic output. While refined tin production in Malaysia has suffered two consecutive years of decline (2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 and estimated 0.5% in 2013).

Nevertheless, both industries face a number of downside risks over 2015. We expect further cooling in the Chinese...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Metals SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Producers Face Narrowing Margins
10
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2018)
14
Tin: Output To Stabilise On Higher Prices
14
Table: Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance (Malaysia 2012-2018)
16
Regulatory Development
17
Table: Import Duties - Steel Wire Rods
18
Table: Political Overview
20
Commodities Forecast
22
Commodity Strategy
22
Ferrous Metals:
23
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015
23
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery
24
Non-Ferrous Metals:
25
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks
25
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414
26
Lead: Price Bounce Underway
27
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months
28
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher
29
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
31
Commodities Forecast
32
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
32
Short-Term Outlook
32
Core View
33
Surplus Set To Slim
34
Production: Reining In Growth
34
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
36
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
38
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
39
Risks To Price Outlook
40
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
40
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
41
Competitive Landscape
42
Table: Malaysia - Financial Data Of Key Listed Companies
43
Company Profile
45
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
45
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
47
Methodology
48
Cross Checks
48

The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.

BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysia metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc