BMI View: BMI's Q2 2014 Malaysia metals report analyses trends within the country's metals sector as the industry looks to assert its dominance as a leading producer in the Asia-Pacific region. Growth in Malaysian production of key metals such as steel and tin will be assisted by an increasingly supportive government which continues to take steps to increase investment in the sector, while introducing measures to protect the sector against cheap imports, or 'dumping' by foreign companies. In 2014, we forecast growth in Malaysian production of both steel and tin, with output forecast to grow by 9.1% and 1.8% year-on-year respectively.
2014 promises to be a solid year of growth across Malaysia's metals sector. With the Chinese economy set to cool in 2014 (we forecast GDP growth of 6.7%), Malaysian metals producers will be looking to the domestic market to drive demand, rather than imports. We retain a positive outlook towards the Malaysian economy in 2014, which we forecast to expand by 4.4%. We expect growth in the National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) to remain relatively robust, lending support to the domestic industry.
In terms of tin production, we expect production levels to return to growth following two years of contracting output, while the country is forecast to be a regional outperformer in terms of steel production with output set to grow by 9.1% in 2014. Domestic metals demand will also remain robust with consumption levels for steel and tin forecast to grow by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively. The success of Malaysia's electronics industry is reported to be driving an increase in demand for the commodity, with the industry having attracted achieved US$1.5bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) and US$154mn in domestic direct investment (DDI) between January and April 2013.
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Downside Risks Remain
We caution that our production forecasts contain an element for downside risk, particularly with regard to...
The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).