Good Freight Outlook For 2015
Activity levels across Malaysia's different freight modes will grow moderately-to-strongly in 2015, generally picking up pace compared to our estimated levels for 2014. As infrastructure investment plans are advancing, Malaysia will be gradually expanding its freight capacity to match. Airfreight, potentially affected by the crisis felt by Malaysia Airlines, will nevertheless notch up growth in the low single digits, while railfreight will do a little better. In shipping, gross tonnage and container volume growth will pick up as both exports and imports continue to grow, despite a slight easing of domestic consumption.
The Malaysian economy surged ahead in 2014, driven by strong export demand and dynamic domestic consumption. Although we remain positive in our outlook for 2015, we believe one of those two engines of expansion - the domestic consumer market - is going to lose some of its vigour. GDP grew by 6.2% in Q114 and by 6.4% in Q214, persuading us to raise out estimate for full calendar 2014 growth to 5.8% (up from 4.5% previously). Our forecast for 2015 is that growth will ease back to a slower, but still impressive 4.2%.
We think export growth will remain pretty strong, as there is evidence of a sustained recovery in global demand for electronics and semi-conductors, both key products of the Malaysian manufacturing sector. However, we do expect government action to cool the boom in the domestic consumer market, particularly given the relatively high levels of household debt. The authorities have already sought to reduce liquidity in the market, and a tightening of interest rates to restrain inflationary pressure is on the cards.
Headline Industry Data
The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by a predicted 4.5% in 2015, a slight dip on the 4.7% expansion estimated in 2014.
Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 1.4% to 202.33mn tonnes in 2015, while volume at the port of Tanjung Pelepas will...
The Malaysia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Malaysia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.