Business Monitor International


Malaysia Freight Transport Report

Published 13 February 2014

  • 85 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Freight Transport Report

Cooling External Demand To Weigh On Sector

Malaysia's latest real GDP growth reading came in decisively weak at 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) for Q213, vindicating our core view that cooling Chinese economic growth would weigh heavily on the export sector. Indeed, looking at the breakdown of GDP by expenditure, the weaker-than-expected reading (Bloomberg consensus stood at around 4.8% prior to the release) was largely due to a sharp contraction in net exports. Net exports suffered the sixth quarter of contraction since Q411, recording a negative 3.3 percentage points (pps) contribution to headline growth of 4.3% y-o-y in Q213. Looking ahead, we expect cooling external demand to continue to drag on the overall economy and that Malaysia's full-year real GDP growth will come in relatively weak at just 4.6%, with the balance of risks slightly skewed to the downside.

Activity levels across Malaysia's different freight modes will grow in a rough 2%-4.0% range in 2014, lagging a little the growth rates achieved by the wider economy and the foreign trade sector. However, as infrastructure investment plans are advancing, Malaysia will be gradually expanding its freight capacity.

Headline Industry Data

  • The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by a predicted 4.4% in 2014, a slight slowdown from the estimated 4.5% expansion experienced in 2013.

  • Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 3.0% to 209.8mn tonnes in 2014, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by a marginally higher 3.2% to 126.2mn tonnes.

  • Rail freight volume is projected to rise 2.2% to 6.379mn tonnes in 2014 and to average 3.9% annual growth in the five-year period to 2018.

  • Air freight volume is set to grow by 0.6% to 927,000 tonnes in 2014. Average growth in the next five years will be a slow but steady 0.5% per annum.

Key Industry Trends

Global Logistics Providers Expand Malaysian Presence: In November 2013, DHL Global Forwarding, the air and ocean freight...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Road And Inland Waterways Freight
18
Table: Malaysia Transport Network Overview
18
Rail Freight
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
20
Air Freight
20
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
21
Maritime Freight
22
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
23
Trade
24
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators
24
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
25
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Logistics/Multimodal
31
Road Freight
32
Air Freight
32
Maritime Freight
33
Company Profile
36
MASkargo
36
MISC Berhad
38
Political Outlook
41
Domestic Politics
41
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
42
Long-Term Political Outlook
43
Oil Price Outlook
49
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
49
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
49
Methodology
51
Crude Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
52
Oil Product Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
53
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
54
Weak Demand Persists
55
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
56
Quarterly Prices
60
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
60
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
61
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
63
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
69
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
71
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
71
Risks To Outlook
73
Macroeconomic Forecasts
74
Economic Analysis
74
Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity
78
Demographic Forecast
79
Demographic Outlook
79
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
80
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
81
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
82
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
82
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Sector-Specific Methodology
84
Sources
85

The Malaysia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Malaysia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc