According to the Malaysian Auto Association (MAA), auto production grew 5.6% in 2013, to 601,407 units. While passenger car production registered healthy growth of 6.7%, to 543,892 units, output in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment contracted 4.1%, to 57,515 units. For 2014, we expect growth in both CV and passenger car production, and forecast overall auto production growth to come in at 4.9%, to 630,590 units.
Auto sales in June 2014 grew 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 58,561 units, bringing sales for H114 to 333,142 units, an increase of 6.3% y-o-y.
We are maintaining our 2014 passenger car sales growth forecast of 4.0%, to 600,000 units, as high base effects will temper growth in H214.
Slowdown In Construction To Weigh On CV Segment
The weakness in CV sales has been more pronounced than we envisaged. Sales in the segment declined 3.0% y-o-y over the H114 period, to 36,363 units. While we expect the country's ongoing ETP to continue providing support for CV demand ( see 'EEV Policy And ETP Will Ensure Strong 2014', January 14), one factor that could have led to the underperformance of the segment is cooling demand in the real estate sector.
While a lot of lending has been channelled into the real estate sector in the past few years, the recent macroprudential measures put in place by the government to rein in property speculation appear to be having the desired effect of curbing speculative demand for real estate. This is corroborated by the slowdown in money supply and credit growth in recent months. This has resulted in a slowdown in the construction sector, which has contributed to weaker CV demand.
NAP And EEV
The revised National Automotive Policy (NAP) contains incentives to promote the production of energy-efficient vehicles (EEVs). We believe this segment is poised to increase its popularity in the South East Asia region especially as the governments in various countries choose to lower their fiscal burdens by curbing fuel subsidies, which results in...
The Malaysia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Malaysia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Malaysia.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
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BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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