Business Monitor International


Malaysia Agribusiness Report

Published 17 June 2014

  • 117 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Strong growth prospects, opportunities for increased exports and government support will be the key factors driving growth in the Malaysian agribusiness sector. We see conditions being particularly favourable for sugar, poultry and cocoa production on the back of strong investment. However, we highlight that changing consumption patterns, disease outbreaks, sudden change s in policy and resource shortages could dent growth potential in the sector in the medium and longer term.

Key Forecasts

  • P alm oil production growth to 2017/18: 11.0% to 21.5mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 15.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. The dominance and continued expansionary activities of market players F&N, Permanis and Yeo Hiap Seng have fuelled considerable growth in the Malaysian soft drinks sector, a significant factor fuelling demand for sugar.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 13.4% to 1.5mn tonnes. More investment in the sector - as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan - is expected to drive growth.

  • 2015 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 8.0% year-on-year increase, to USD24.4bn, forecast to grow by 8.7% annually from 2015 to 2018.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 4.2% (down from 4.5% expected in 2014, forecast to average 4.1% from 2015 to 2018).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 2.6% (down from 3.2% expected in 2014, forecast to average 2.3% from 2015 to 2018).

  • 2015 central bank policy rate: 3.25% eop (same as 2014, forecast to average 3.44% from 2015 to 2018).

Palm Oil, King Commodity
Malaysia - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Developments

Malaysia's palm oil production outlook is improving amid reduced weather risks, but prospects for exports remain subdued. Global import demand, especially from China, will be weak. Malaysia's palm oil exports continue to be less competitive than Indonesia,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Palm Oil Outlook
14
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
19
Sugar Outlook
20
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
21
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
26
Cocoa Outlook
26
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption
28
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption
33
Livestock Outlook
34
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
35
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
35
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
36
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Commodity Price Analysis
39
Monthly Grains Update
39
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
48
Monthly Softs Update
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Upstream Analysis
59
Asia Machinery Outlook
59
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
61
Asia GM Outlook
67
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
73
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
73
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
77
Downstream Analysis
81
Food
81
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
83
Confectionery
83
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
85
Fish
85
Oils And Fats
86
Dairy
87
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
87
Drink
88
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
89
Alcoholic Drinks
90
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
91
Soft Drinks
92
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
93
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
96
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, Historical Data & Forecast (%)
97
Regional Overview
98
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
102
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
104
Competitive Landscape
105
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
105
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112

The Malaysia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Malaysia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Malaysia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Malaysia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc