Business Monitor International


Malaysia Agribusiness Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Malaysia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Strong growth prospects, opportunities for increased exports and government support will be the key factors driving growth in the Malaysian agribusiness sector. We see conditions being particularly favourable for sugar, poultry and cocoa production on the back of strong investment. However, we highlight that changing consumption patterns, disease outbreaks, sudden change s in policy and resource shortages could dent growth potential in the sector in the medium and longer term.

Key Forecasts

  • P alm oil production growth to 2017/18: 11.0% to 21.5mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 15.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. The dominance and continued expansionary activities of market players F&N, Permanis and Yeo Hiap Seng have fuelled considerable growth in the Malaysian soft drinks sector, a significant factor fuelling demand for sugar.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 13.4% to 1.5mn tonnes. More investment in the sector - as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan - is expected to drive growth.

  • 2015 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 8.0% year-on-year increase, to USD24.4bn, forecast to grow by 8.7% annually from 2015 to 2018.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 4.2% (down from 4.5% expected in 2014, forecast to average 4.1% from 2015 to 2018).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 2.6% (down from 3.2% expected in 2014, forecast to average 2.3% from 2015 to 2018).

  • 2015 central bank policy rate: 3.25% eop (same as 2014, forecast to average 3.44% from 2015 to 2018).

Palm Oil, King Commodity
Malaysia - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Developments

Malaysia's palm oil production outlook is improving amid reduced weather risks, but prospects for exports remain subdued. Global import demand, especially from China, will be weak. Malaysia's palm oil exports continue to be less competitive than Indonesia,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Palm Oil Outlook
14
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
21
Sugar Outlook
22
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
27
Cocoa Outlook
28
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2018)
29
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
34
Livestock Outlook
35
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
37
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
37
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
40
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
40
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2008-2013)
40
Featured Analysis
42
Agribusiness: Winners And Losers From AEC
42
Table: Selected Risk Ratings
43
Table: ASEAN Economic Community - Winners & Losers In Selected Agribusiness Sectors
44
Commodity Price Analysis
50
Monthly Softs Strategy
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Monthly Grains Strategy
59
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
68
Upstream Analysis
69
Asia GM Outlook
69
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
75
Asia Machinery Outlook
75
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
77
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
81
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
85
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
89
Downstream Analysis
91
Food
91
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
93
Confectionery
93
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
94
Fish
95
Oils And Fats
95
Dairy
96
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
96
Drink
97
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
98
Alcoholic Drinks
99
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
100
Soft Drinks
101
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
102
Mass Grocery Retail
104
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
106
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, Historical Data & Forecast (%)
106
Regional Overview
107
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
109
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
113
Competitive Landscape
115
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
115
Demographic Forecast
117
Demographic Outlook
117
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
118
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
119
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
120
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
120
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Sector-Specific Methodology
122

The Malaysia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Malaysia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Malaysia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Malaysia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc