BMI View: With organic growth in the mobile sector all but played out, Lithuanian operators are now focusing on improving their subscriber mixes in favour of more lucrative postpai d services. So far, they have reported mixed success and, although blended ARPUs declined at a slower rate in 2012, it was clear that increased data consumption was still insufficient to cushion the effects of declining voice usage and mobile termination rate cuts. That said , t here was an uptick in data consu mption in 2013 and a rise in the number of multi-product bundles, which bodes well for quad-play offerings should these emerge. As it is, we continue t o forecast revenue , and therefore ARPU contraction , for the next three years. Operators will thus need to justify where and when they invest in next-generation networks, even after acquiring 800MHz spectrum in Q413.
Blended mobile ARPU continues to fall and will reach LTL14.9 by the end of 2013, a y-o-y decline of 5.7%. By 2017, ARPU will have fallen to LTL14.0 but will, at least, have stabilised after years of MTR cuts and price competition.
The increased emphasis on postpaid subscriptions will begin to benefit 3G and 4G mobile service revenues. BMI forecasts 3G/4G subscriptions to grow from 1.801mn in 2013 to 2.135mn as new handsets and connected devices increasingly come with 3G/4G-enabled.
At the same time, demand for traditional fixed broadband connections (principally fibre and fixed wireless connections) will continue trending upwards, helping total broadband subscriptions to rise from 1.132mn in 2013 to 1.375mn by 2017.
Key Trends & Developments
Omnitel, Bité and Tele2 all secured digital dividend spectrum in the 800MHz band in October 2013, adding to the 2.5/2.6GHz spectrum they acquired at auction in March 2012. Market leader Omnitel is well ahead of its peers in the 4G race, having begun offering 4G at 1800MHz some time earlier. Tele2 has also made rapid strides with its 4G LTE service,...
The Lithuania Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Lithuania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Lithuania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Lithuania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Lithuania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.