Business Monitor International


Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 07 April 2014

  • 111 pages
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$1,295.00
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: We expect the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market to post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, rising to a value of LTL2.16bn (US$751mn) in 2018. While double-digit annual growth rates are firmly in the past, some opportunities continue to exist in light of epidemiological factors and an ageing population. The upcoming switch to the euro promises to boost purchasing power and stabilise the pharmaceutical market. However, the Lithuanian market will continue to represent a modest opportunity for drugmakers due to its absolute small size relative to its neighbouring markets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.74bn (US$667mn) in 2013 to LTL1.80bn (US$663mn) in 2014; +3.3% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LTL7.72bn (US$2.95bn) in 2013 to LTL8.03bn (US$2.96bn) in 2014; +4.0% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Lithuania remains ranked in the bottom half of the matrix assessing 20 countries in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We note that Lithuania's small population will continue to restrict longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market, despite its solid risks profile and a predictable operating environment. We therefore hold to our view that Lithuania's overall Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score will not change drastically over the coming quarters.

Key Trends and Developments

  • Pharmaceutical companies and the Lithuanian government have affirmed their commitment to improve patients' access to innovative drugs.

  • Lithuania's brightening economic outlook in 2014 and the liberalisation of the OTC retail market will spur OTC medicine growth.

BMI Economic View: Real GDP growth in Lithuania will accelerate to 3.6% in 2014 from an estimated 3.0% in 2013 due to a brightening domestic demand outlook. While export growth should accelerate in line with improving growth prospects in Lithuania's trading partners, this...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Executive Summary
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Lithuania Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
17
Table: Lithuania Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
18
Table: Lithuania Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Lithuania Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Lithuania Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Lithuania Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: Lithuania Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2009-2017
31
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (LTLmn), 2009-2017
31
Other Healthcare Data
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Activity
34
Table: Lithuania - GDP By Expenditure
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Lithuania Risk
Lithuania Risk
Rewards
52
Risks
52
Market Overview
54
Industry Trends And Developments
56
Epidemiology
56
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010
57
Communicable Diseases
58
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
58
Healthcare System
59
Healthcare Provision
59
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010
59
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010
60
Healthcare Funding
61
Healthcare Insurance
61
E-Health
62
Biotechnology
62
Clinical Trials
64
Regulatory Development
65
Regional Harmonisation
66
Pharmaceutical Advertising
67
Intellectual Property Developments
68
Pricing Regime
69
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
70
Reimbursement Regime
71
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
72
Reimbursement Developments
72
Competitive Landscape
74
Pharmaceutical Industry
74
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2011
74
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
75
Domestic Industry
75
Recent Company Developments
76
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
77
Pharmaceutical Retail
78
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010
79
Company Profile
81
Valentis
81
Sanitas (Valeant)
83
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
87
GlaxoSmithKline
90
Pfizer
92
Novartis
94
Merck & Co
96
Sanofi
98
Demographic Forecast
100
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Methodology
106
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Notes On Methodology
107
Risk
Risk
Ratings Overview
109
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk
Indicator Weightings
110

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc