Business Monitor International


Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 111 pages
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$1,295.00
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Collective procurement of medicines with Latvia and Estonia will benefit the development of the pharmaceutical market , albeit at the cost of pricing cuts. While these markets are singularly small, together they represent an attractive and modest - sized market. The Lithuanian market on its own will pose a modest opportunity for drugmakers due to its small absolute size relative to its neighbouring markets. We expect the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market to post a local five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3. 7 %, rising to LTL2.1 0 bn (USD7 29 mn) in 2018.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.74bn (USD667mn) in 2013 to LTL1.81bn (USD702mn) in 2014; +3.6% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LTL7.68bn (USD2.94bn) in 2013 to LTL8.00bn (USD3.11bn) in 2014; +4.2% in local currency terms and +5.8% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Lithuania remains in the bottom half of the matrix assessing 20 countries in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We note that Lithuania's small population will continue to restrict longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market, despite its solid risks profile and predictable operating environment.

Key Trends and Developments

  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will begin to jointly procure medicines and medical devices, offering much greater volumes to interested drugmakers, albeit with specific caveats on pricing.

  • Pharmaceutical companies and the Lithuanian government have affirmed their commitment to improve patients' access to innovative drugs.

  • Geopolitical risk and fallout from Ukraine crisis have damaged growth prospects for Lithuania's export sector in 2014, impacting our pharmaceutical outlook in turn.

  • After signing off a new Reimbursable List, premiums for insulins have increased significantly, causing public outcry among Lithuanians.  

BMI Economic View: Lithuania's current account surplus will swing back into deficit this...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Lithuania Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Table: Lithuania Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Table: Lithuania Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Lithuania Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Lithuania Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts
28
Table: Lithuania Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Economic Activity (Lithuania 2009-2018)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Lithuania Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010
44
Communicable Diseases
44
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
45
Healthcare System
45
Healthcare Provision
46
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010
46
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010
47
Healthcare Funding
47
Healthcare Insurance
48
Biotechnology
48
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
51
Regional Harmonisation
52
Pharmaceutical Advertising
53
Intellectual Property Developments
54
Pricing Regime
55
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
56
Reimbursement Regime
57
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
58
Reimbursement Developments
58
Competitive Landscape
60
Pharmaceutical Industry
60
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
60
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
61
Domestic Industry
61
Recent Company Developments
62
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
63
Pharmaceutical Retail
64
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010
65
Company Profile
67
Valentis
67
Sanitas (Valeant)
69
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
72
GlaxoSmithKline
75
Pfizer
77
Novartis
79
Merck & Co
81
Sanofi
83
Demographic Forecast
85
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
86
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
87
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
88
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
88
Glossary
89
Methodology
91
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
91
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
91
Notes On Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
93
Ratings Overview
94
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
94
Indicator Weightings
95

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc