Business Monitor International


Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 07 July 2014

  • 111 pages
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$1,295.00
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: We expect the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market to post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8 %, rising to a value of LTL2.1 1 bn ( USD 7 32 mn) in 2018. The upcoming switch to the euro promises to boost purchasing power and stabilise the pharmaceutical market , albeit at the cost of increasing healthcare expenditure . Ceding control of monetary policy to Brussels leaves Lithuania with little leeway to increas e its healthcare spending dramatically over the next five years. The Lithuanian market will continue to pose a modest opportunity for drugmakers due to its small absolute size relative to its neighbouring markets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.74bn (USD667mn) in 2013 to LTL1.82bn (USD689mn) in 2014; +4.1% in local currency terms and +3.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LTL7.68bn (USD2.94bn) in 2013 to LTL8.01bn (USD3.04bn) in 2014; +4.3% in local currency terms and +3.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Lithuania remains ranked in the bottom half of the matrix assessing 20 countries in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We note that Lithuania's small population will continue to restrict longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market, despite its solid risks profile and a predictable operating environment.

Key Trends and Developments

  • Pharmaceutical companies and the Lithuanian government have affirmed their commitment to improve patients' access to innovative drugs.

  • Geopolitical risk and fallout from Ukraine crisis have damaged growth prospects for Lithuania's export sector in 2014, impacting our pharmaceutical outlook in turn.

  • After signing off a new Reimbursable List, premiums for insulins have increased significantly, causing public outcry among Lithuanians.

BMI Economic View: We are revising down our forecast for real GDP growth in Lithuania for 2014, from 3.3% to 3.1%, as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine crisis in Q114 have soured the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2010-2018)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2018)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2012-2018)
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: Lithuania - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Lithuania Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010
46
Communicable Diseases
46
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
47
Healthcare System
47
Healthcare Provision
47
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010
48
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010
49
Healthcare Funding
49
Healthcare Insurance
50
Biotechnology
50
Clinical Trials
52
Regulatory Development
53
Regional Harmonisation
54
Pharmaceutical Advertising
55
Intellectual Property Developments
56
Pricing Regime
57
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
58
Reimbursement Regime
59
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
60
Reimbursement Developments
60
Competitive Landscape
62
Pharmaceutical Industry
62
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
62
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
63
Domestic Industry
63
Recent Company Developments
64
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
65
Pharmaceutical Retail
66
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010
67
Company Profile
69
Valentis
69
Sanitas (Valeant)
71
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
74
GlaxoSmithKline
77
Pfizer
79
Novartis
81
Merck & Co
83
Sanofi
85
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Methodology
93
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
93
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
93
Notes On Methodology
94
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
95
Ratings Overview
96
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
96
Indicator Weightings
97

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc