Business Monitor International


Libya Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 118 pages
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$1,295.00
Libya Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Despite a rapid ramp-up in production in recent months, we see continued political instability, a deteriorating security environment and recurrent production shut-ins drag on overall oil output levels. Efforts to increase oil exports will also be undercut by both disruptions in the supply and increased oversaturation of the Atlantic light sweet crude market, depressing demand. Finally, we have downgraded the country's sustainable production capacity this quarter to below 1mn b/d, and see wide infrastructural damage, high depletion rates and limited investment inflows undermine efforts at a longer-term recovery in output.

Headline Forecasts (Libya 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,483.9 993.0 425.3 617.8 649.7 712.1 780.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 260.0 208.0 187.2 205.9 226.5 249.2 274.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 329.0 173.4 164.8 206.0 267.8 307.9 320.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.0 7.8 5.4 7.6 11.4 13.1 14.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.5 7.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

  • Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm), respectively, at the start of 2014. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.

  • Ongoing instability in Libya has affected production in the first three quarters of 2014, and we expect this dynamic to continue throughout the year. We forecast 2014 production of 425,000 barrels per day (b/d), with a recovery in 2015 to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Table: Upstream Projects
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Libya Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
9
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
10
Table: Test Results From Discoveries In The Sirte Basin
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Gas Supply and Demand
17
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
17
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
18
LNG
21
Refining and Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
22
Refining and Oil Products Trade
22
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Libya - Risk Reward Ratings
24
Libya Upstream Overview
24
Libya Upstream Reward
24
Libya Upstream Risk
24
Libya Downstream Overview
24
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
25
Table: Africa Upstream R/R Ratings, Scores out of 100
26
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
30
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
31
Market Overview
33
Libya Energy Market Overview
33
Overview/State Role
35
Licensing and Regulation
35
Tax Law
36
Government Policy
36
Licensing Rounds
37
International Energy Relations
39
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Libya
42
Oil Terminals
43
Oil Pipelines
44
LNG Terminals
44
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
45
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
NOC
48
Eni
52
Total
56
OMV
59
Repsol
62
Marathon
65
ConocoPhillips
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
75
Regional Energy Overview
75
Sub-Salt Expectations
76
Re-targeting Oil Flows
77
East African Gas Boom
78
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
80
Post-Revolutionary Blues
81
Global Industry Overview
83
Global Energy Market Overview
83
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
84
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
90
Appendix
92
Africa - Regional Appendix
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
97
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
99
Glossary
100
Table: Glossary Of Terms
100
Methodology
102
Energy Industry
103
Cross checks
103
Sources
104

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc