Business Monitor International


Libya Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Libya Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Despite a rapid ramp-up in production in recent months, we see continued political instability, a deteriorating security environment and recurrent production shut-ins drag on overall oil output levels. Efforts to increase oil exports will also be undercut by both disruptions in the supply and increased oversaturation of the Atlantic light sweet crude market, depressing demand. Finally, we have downgraded the country's sustainable production capacity this quarter to below 1mn b/d, and see wide infrastructural damage, high depletion rates and limited investment inflows undermine efforts at a longer-term recovery in output.

Headline Forecasts (Libya 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,483.9 993.0 425.3 617.8 649.7 712.1 780.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 260.0 208.0 187.2 205.9 226.5 249.2 274.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 329.0 173.4 164.8 206.0 267.8 307.9 320.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.0 7.8 5.4 7.6 11.4 13.1 14.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.5 7.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

  • Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm), respectively, at the start of 2014. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.

  • Ongoing instability in Libya has affected production in the first three quarters of 2014, and we expect this dynamic to continue throughout the year. We forecast 2014 production of 425,000 barrels per day (b/d), with a recovery in 2015 to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2018-2023)
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2012-2017)
16
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2018-2023)
16
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2012-2017)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2018-2023)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2018-2023)
22
Trade - Oil
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2012-2017)
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2018-2023)
24
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2012-2017)
26
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2018-2023)
27
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2018-2023)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
34
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
34
Angola in the Ascendant
35
Brightening Horizons to the West
36
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
36
An Underwhelming Downstream
38
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Libya - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Libya Upstream Overview
39
Libya Upstream Rewards
39
Libya Upstream Risk
39
Libya Downstream Overview
40
Market Overview
41
Libya Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
43
Licensing And Regulation
43
Tax Law
44
Government Policy
44
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In Libya
51
Oil Terminals
53
Oil Pipelines
54
LNG Terminals
54
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
54
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
58
Eni North Africa
62
Total Libya
66
OMV Of Libya
69
Repsol Libya
72
Marathon Oil
75
ConocoPhillips
78
Other Summaries
81
Regional Overview
85
Africa Overview
85
Rising Offshore Interest
85
Unconventionals : New Frontier
88
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
89
Downstream Blues
91
High-Risk Continent
94
Global Industry Overview
97
Global Energy Market Overview
97
Appendix
103
Africa - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
110
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
112
Glossary
114
Table: Glossary Of Terms
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Source
118
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
118
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
120
Table: Weighting
121

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc