Business Monitor International


Libya Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 April 2014

  • 118 pages
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$1,295.00
Libya Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Production in Libya will continue to be hit by domestic political and social instability in the short term and we note that unrest in the wider North African region will rock the oil and gas industry as well. Oil and gas production forecasts have been downwardly revised as a result of these developments, as political tensions are not likely to be resolved in early 2014. The deficit of greenfield investment, owing to political unrest, will spill over into the long term in the form of slower production growth, as Libya underperforms its raw hydrocarbon potential.

The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

  • Continued instability in Libya has affected production in 2013 and we expect output in 2014 to disappoint as well. We expect production to fall further in 2014 to 502,380 barrels per day (b/d). As we do not see prospects for improvement in the short term, this has had a knock-on effect on our forecast for 2015 as we expect the current state of unrest to continue, with output underperforming at 940,470b/d. However, according to our Country Risk team the political impasse could stabilise by late 2015, which could then see a rebound of oil production. Oil output could hit 1.28mn b/d - about 420,000b/d shy of the oil ministry's target of 1.7mn b/d by 2017 - in 2018 and 1.49mn b/d by 2023, short of the 2.2mn b/d that NOC had aimed for.

  • We estimate a decline in gas production in 2013 to about 7.8bcm as a result of output disruptions that have rocked Libya. Production is likely to underperform in 2014 and only rebound in 2015, assuming an easing in political tensions. This could see gas output pick up to reach 15.5bcm in 2018 and 19.8bcm by 2023. However, we highlight that greater-than-expected security risks could deter greenfield investment into this underweight sector of Libya's hydrocarbon industry.

  • There are both upside and downside risks to these forecasts. An improvement to Libya's political situation could see a gush...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Libya Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Libya Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Test Results From Discoveries In The Sirte Basin
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Libya Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Libya Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Libya Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: Libya Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
20
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
LNG
26
Revenues/Import Costs
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Libya - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Libya Upstream Overview
28
Libya Upstream Rewards
28
Libya Upstream Risk
28
Libya Downstream Overview
28
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
30
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
An Underwhelming Downstream
37
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Market Overview
41
Libya Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
43
Licensing And Regulation
43
Tax Law
44
Government Policy
44
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
47
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In Libya
51
Oil Terminals
53
Oil Pipelines
53
LNG Terminals
54
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
54
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
58
Eni North Africa
62
Total Libya
66
OMV Of Libya
69
Repsol Libya
72
Marathon Oil
75
ConocoPhillips
78
Other Summaries
81
Regional Overview
85
Africa Overview
85
Offshore Rising
85
Unconventionals : New Frontier
88
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
88
Downstream Blues
90
High-Risk Continent
92
Global Industry Overview
95
Global Energy Market Overview
95
Appendix
103
Africa - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
110
Glossary
111
Table: Glossary Of Terms
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Source
115
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
117
Table: Weighting
119

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc