Business Monitor International


Libya Food & Drink Report

Published 02 September 2014

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Libya Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   The Libyan food and drink industry will continue to suffer from worsening political instability and severe government spending cuts , and the dire humanitarian situation will contribute to shrinking pri vate consumption growth . While we predict that the Libyan economy will return to growth in 2015 from a sharp contraction in 2014, the headline print will mask a continued crisis in the domestic economy.

We project real GDP growth of 16.7% in 2015, from a 27.6% contraction in 2014, although this economic expansion will be the result of a sharp uptick in oil exports, a consequence of extremely low base effects. The rest of the economy will continue to contract, and we project an average annual real GDP contraction of 0.5% over 2014-2018 as efforts to diversify the economy away from crude are unsuccessful and political instability remains extremely elevated.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total food consumption (local currency) growth in 2014: +6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +5.9%

  • Per capita food consumption (local currency) growth in 2014: +5.8% y-o-y; CAGR: +4.7%

  • Total mass grocery retail sales (local currency) growth in 2014: +13.5% y-o-y; CAGR to 2018: +10.7%

Key Industry Trends

Libya Sees Sharp Fall In Agricultural Trade Interest: Following reports in the Tripoli Post in spring 2013 that exports of cattle and sheep to Libya from Ireland had resumed,  Libya Business News reported in September 2014 that sheep imports from Ireland had fallen by 72% y-o-y in July of that year due to Libya's continuing instability.

Key Risks To Outlook

The risks to our current consumer outlook are mostly to the downside. Libya's combination of oil wealth, tribal divisions, weak or non-existent institutions and the prevailing security vacuum portend to significant instability and potential for violent conflict over the coming years, especially given the unstable regional political situation. This will translate...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Mass Grocery Retail
18
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Trade
20
Macroeconomic Forecast
22
Economic Analysis
22
Table: Libya - Economic Activity
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
30
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
34
Libya Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Market Overview
36
Food
36
Food Consumption
36
Food Production
36
Confectionery
37
Agriculture
38
Drink
39
Alcoholic Drinks
39
Soft Drinks
40
Hot Drinks
41
Mass Grocery Retail
42
Industry Trends And Developments
44
Food
44
Drink
48
Mass Grocery Retail
50
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Food & Drink Sector
53
Table: Key Players In North Africa's MGR Sector
54
Company Profile
56
Cinnabon
56
Global Industry Overview
58
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
67
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Libya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Libya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Libya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Libya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Glossary
72
Food & Drink
72
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75
Sources
75
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
76
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
77
Table: Weighting
78

The Libya Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Libya Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Libya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Libya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Libya through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc