Business Monitor International


Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 51 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.

  • Despite renewed fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what may turn out to be a potentially prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2014.

Major Forecast Revisions

  • We have revised our real GDP growth projections, and now forecast the economy to expand by 1.8% and 2.3% in real terms in 2014 and 2015, respectively, from our previous forecast of 2.5% growth this year and 2.9% the next. We reaffirm our view that elevated political instability and the lack of structural reform to the economy will contribute to below potential growth over the next five years.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Given Lebanon's reliance on foreign capital to finance domestic demand (as evidenced through its large current account shortfall), a marked deterioration in regional or global capital markets over the coming quarters could slow financial inflows, which would negatively impact growth.

  • As the civil war in Syria shows no signs of abating, tensions between Lebanese political blocs pro and against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad will remain a key source of instability.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2015)
Indicator 2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 42.6 44.5 47.8 52.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 10.1 3.5 5.0 6.0
Exchange rate LBP/USD, eop 1,504.00 1,503.50 1,495.00 1,480.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -9.2 -11.6 -12.2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary - Lebanon
11
Core Views
11
Major Forecast Changes
11
Key Risks To Outlook
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Domestic Politics
14
Presidential Vacuum To Compound Security Risks
14
table : Politic al Over vie w
14
Long-Term Political Outlook
16
Political Upheaval Inevitable In The Long Term-
16
Chapter 1
19
SWOT Analysis
19
Economic Activity
20
Growth Subdued In The Next Five Years
20
table : Economic Acti vity
20
Banking Sector
22
Banking Sector: Solid Fundamentals Shielding Against Risks
22
PMI
24
Manufacturing Activity Subdued In 2014
24
Chapter 1
27
The Lebanese Economy To 2023
27
Long-Term Growth Depends On Structural Reforms
27
table : Long -Ter m Macr oec onomic Forec asts
27
Chapter 1
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Executive Summary - Syria
31
Core Views
31
Major Forecast Changes
31
Key Risks To Outlook
31
Chapter 2
33
SWOT Analysis
33
Domestic Politics
34
Assad Re-Election To Reinforce Regime's Continuity
34
table : Politic al Over vie w
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
35
Conflict Scenarios Point To Turbulent Decade Ahead
35
table : Long -ter m scen ari os
36
Chapter 2
39
SWOT Analysis
39
Economic Activity
40
GDP Contraction Slowing In 2014
40
table : Economic Acti vity
40
Monetary Policy
42
Inflation Declining Modestly In 2014
42
table : Monet ary Policy
42
Chapter 2
45
The Syrian Economy To 2023
45
Weak Human Capital To Constrain Growth
45
table : Long -Ter m Macr oec onomic Forec asts
45
Chapter 2
49
SWOT Analysis
49
Chapter 3:BMI Global Assumptions
51
Global Outlook
51
Emerging Market Deceleration
51
Table : Global Assu mpti ons
51
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
52
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %
52
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
53

The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in the Lebanon and Syria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Lebanon and Syria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Lebanon and Syria's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Lebanon and Syria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Lebanon and Syria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the the Lebanese and Syrian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Lebanon and Syria through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Lebanon and Syria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Lebanon and Syria, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Lebanon and Syria over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Lebanon and Syria country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the the Lebanese and Syrian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Lebanon and Syria.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Lebanon and Syria's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Lebanon and Syria's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express