Business Monitor International


Latvia Telecommunications Report

Published 22 November 2013

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Latvia Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Latvia slipped several places down BMI 's Risk/Rewards Ratings table for the Central and Eastern European telecommunications sector. There are numerous reasons for this, but the most significant include saturation of the mobile market, a non-competitive fixed-line voice and broadband market, low consumer spending with regards to services including telecoms and TV and the continued reluctance on the part of the government to distance itself both from the primary legislator and the leading service provider. There are opportunities to be exploited, in particular growing interest in multi-play services and the recent merger of Baltcom and Izzi Group could yet lead to the long-awaited creation of a dynamic rival to incumbent Lattelecom . However, much depends on the willingness of investors to fully commit to overhauling the resulting entity and on the government to push for reforms that make it easier and more cost-effective for alternative players to access utilities' networks.

  • There were 2.781mn mobile subscriptions at the end of 2012, a figure BMI forecasts will rise to 2.906mn by the end of 2013. This represents y-o-y growth of 4.5% and a penetration rate of 141.7%.

  • 4G services are being rolled-out, but the relatively high costs are likely to have weighed in rapid adoption, particularly while 3.5G upgrades are still being deployed.

  • Broadband subscriptions numbered 1.584mn in 2012, a figure BMI forecasts to rise to 1.790mn in 2013, driven largely by fibre and mobile broadband services. The merger of Baltcom and Izzi has the potential to deliver some upside in the medium to long term, but questions remain concerning shareholders' long-term commitment.

Key Developments

The long-awaited merger of Baltcom and Izzi Group has the potential to improve the dynamics of this saturated and lacklustre market. The merger brings increased market reach to the enlarged entity, as well as pooling the component players' diverse content portfolios....

Table of Contents

SWOT Analysis
6
Latvia Wireless SWOT
6
Latvia Wireline SWOT
7
Latvia Political SWOT
8
Latvia Economic SWOT
8
Latvia Business Environment SWOT
9
Risk/Reward Ratings
10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
14
Latvia
15
Industry Forecast Scenario
17
Mobile
17
Table: Latvian Telecoms Sector - Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
17
ARPU
19
Table: ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
19
Fixed-Line
21
Table: Latvian Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
21
Internet
22
Table: Latvian Telecoms Sector - Internet Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
22
Market Overview
23
Mobile
23
Regional Perspective
23
Heading: Latvia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
24
Key Developments
24
Mobile Growth
25
Market Shares
26
Table: Latvia Mobile Subscribers, Q312 (000-)
27
Usage (MoU/ARPU)
28
3G/4G
30
Mobile Content
32
Mobile Operator Data
33
Table: Latvia Mobile Market Overview, 2009-2012
33
Table: LMT
33
Table: Bit
Table: Bit

The Latvia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Latvia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Latvia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Latvia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Latvia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc