Business Monitor International


Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 February 2014

  • 109 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Latvian pharmaceutical sales posted growth in line with our forecasts for t he first nine months of 2013 . With private spending experiencing a slowdown in Q313, we expected pharmacy sales of consumer pharmaceuticals to follow. We reiterate our expectation of +4.0% growth for 2013 on the back of the latest data. Latvia will continue to present a modest opportunity to larger multinational companies on account of its relatively small market size .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LVL230mn (US$429mn) in 2013 to LVL239mn (US$430mn) in 2014; +4.1% in local currency terms and +0.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LVL1.02bn (US$1.75bn) in 2013 to LVL1.07bn (US$1.90bn) in 2014; +5.1% in local currency terms and +1.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating s : Latvia is ranked 14th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in Q114. Latvia's ranking has improved one place compared with our assessment in the previous quarter. However, Latvia's composite score of 48.8 remains unchanged, indicating that the movement is due to a worsening assessment of the country's peers. Lativa's score remains below the regional average of 51.5, indicating the country's challenging business environment, particularly in terms of potential industry rewards. Consequently, direct multinational operations are limited and domestic companies such as Grindeks have looked abroad for growth opportunities.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In November 2013, Grindeks reported that it was investing LVL1.6mn (US$3.1mn) in a local quality control laboratory to strengthen its position and increase its competitiveness. Of the total investment, LVL1.33mn (US$2.57mn) will be used for the construction of the facility, while the remaining will be invested in buying modern analytical equipment for the laboratory. Construction of the new lab, which will be built in accordance with EU good manufacturing practice standards, is scheduled to be...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Latvia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Latvia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
17
Table: Latvia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
17
Table: Latvia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2018
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Latvia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018f
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Latvia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Latvia Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018f
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Latvia Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
25
Pharmaceutical Trade
25
Table: Latvia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2011-2018
26
Table: Latvia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (LVLmn), 2011-2018
27
Other Healthcare Data
27
Table: Physicians By Specialty, 2004-2010
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
31
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Latvia - GDP By Expenditure
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Latvia Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 1990-2010
48
Table: New Cases of Cancer, 2004-2010
50
Table: Cumulative Reported Cases of HIV and AIDS, 2000-2010
51
Healthcare Sector
52
Healthcare Sector Funding
52
Healthcare Provision
54
Table: Hospitals & Beds, 2006-2010
55
Table: Hospital Beds by Specialty, 2004-2010
55
Research & Development
56
Biotechnology
57
Clinical Trials
59
Regulatory Development
60
Regional Collaboration
61
Intellectual Property Developments
62
Pricing Regime
63
Reimbursement Regime
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Pharmaceutical Industry
67
Table: Licences Issued To Companies Engaged In Pharmaceutical Manufacturing And Distribution, 2007-2011
67
Table: Medicines Consumption According To Marketing Authorisation Holders (turnover in LVL)
68
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
69
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
70
Table: Wholesale Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
71
Table: Wholesalers Market Share, 2010 (%)
72
Pharmaceutical Retail
73
Table: Pharmacy Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
73
Table: Licences Issued To Pharmacies
75
Company Profile
77
Grindeks
77
Olainfarm
83
Pfizer
87
GlaxoSmithKline
89
Sanofi
92
Novartis
94
Merck & Co
96
Demographic Forecast
98
Latvia
98
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
99
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
100
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
101
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
101
Glossary
102
Methodology
104
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Notes On Methodology
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
106
Ratings Overview
107
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
107
Indicator Weightings
108

The Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc