Business Monitor International


Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 111 pages
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$1,295.00
Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Market growth forecasts are strong although the country will continue to present a modest opportunity to larger multinational companies on account of its relatively small market size. Meanwhile, tensions between Ukraine and Russia may provide challenges for local manufacturers that had sought exports to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region as a remedy for lacklustre domestic demand in recent years.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR325mn (USD429mn) in 2013 to EUR340mn (USD456mn) in 2014; +4.7% in local currency terms and +6.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR0.94bn (USD1.24bn) in 2013 to EUR0.98bn (USD1.31bn) in 2014; +4.2% in local currency terms and +5.8% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index : Latvia is ranked 12th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in Q115. Its relative position in the rankings remains unchanged from our assessment for the previous quarter. Latvia's overall score also remains unchanged at 50.0 for Q115. Latvia's score remains below the regional average of 51.0, indicating the country's challenging business environment, particularly in terms of potential industry rewards. Consequently, direct multinational operations are limited and domestic companies such as Grindeks have looked abroad for growth opportunities.

Key Trends And Developments

  •  In June 2014, Grindeks reported that it had made an advance payment of EUR11.67mn as part of a 2012 deal to acquire Slovakia-based company, HBM Pharma, in a deal worth EUR13.1mn. The remaining amount of the payment will be made after the re-registration of shares to Grindeks according to Slovak legislation. Grindeks commented that it anticipates the transaction to be completed in 2014; following completion, HBM Pharma will be included in Grindeks' Group structure.

BMI Economic View: The escalation of a major trade war between Russia and the EU will have ramifications for Latvia's external...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
24
OTC Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Latvia 2012-2018)
29
Other Healthcare Data
29
Table: Physicians By Specialty, 2004-2010
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Macro Outlook
32
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
33
Risks To Outlook
37
Table: Economic Activity (Latvia 2009-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
38
Latvia Risk/Reward Index
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 1990-2010
49
Table: New Cases of Cancer, 2004-2010
51
Table: Cumulative Reported Cases of HIV and AIDS, 2000-2010
53
Healthcare Sector
54
Healthcare Sector Funding
54
Healthcare Provision
56
Table: Hospitals & Beds, 2006-2010
56
Table: Hospital Beds by Specialty, 2004-2010
57
Research & Development
58
Biotechnology
59
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
62
Regional Collaboration
63
Intellectual Property Developments
64
Pricing Regime
64
Reimbursement Regime
67
Competitive Landscape
69
Pharmaceutical Industry
69
Table: Licences Issued To Companies Engaged In Pharmaceutical Manufacturing And Distribution, 2007-2011
69
Table: Medicines Consumption According To Marketing Authorisation Holders (turnover in LVL)
70
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
71
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
72
Table: Wholesale Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
73
Table: Wholesalers Market Share, 2010 (%)
74
Pharmaceutical Retail
75
Table: Pharmacy Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
75
Table: Licences Issued To Pharmacies
77
Company Profile
79
Grindeks
79
Olainfarm
84
Pfizer
88
GlaxoSmithKline
90
Sanofi
94
Novartis
96
Merck & Co
98
Demographic Forecast
100
Latvia
100
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Methodology
106
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Notes On Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
108
Index Overview
109
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
109
Indicator Weightings
110

The Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Latvia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc