Business Monitor International


Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 August 2014

  • 109 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Latvia's macroeconomic environment continues to improve at the same time as smooth transitions to a new currency and new Prime Minister. Market growth forecasts are strong although the country will continue to present a modest opportunity to larger multinational companies on account of its relatively small market size. Meanwhile, tensions between Ukraine and Russia may provide challenges for local manufacturers looking towards exports to Russia to boost revenue .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR325mn (USD429mn) in 2013 to EUR341mn (USD458mn) in 2014; +5.0% in local currency terms and +6.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR0.94bn (USD1.24bn) in 2013 to EUR0.98bn (USD1.32bn) in 2014; +4.5% in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Latvia is ranked 12th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in Q414. Its relative position in the rankings remains unchanged from our assessment for the previous quarter. Latvia's overall score also remains unchanged at 50.0 for Q414. Latvia's score remains below the regional average of 51.4, indicating the country's challenging business environment, particularly in terms of potential industry rewards. Consequently, direct multinational operations are limited and domestic companies such as Grindeks have looked abroad for growth opportunities.

Key Trends And Developments

  •  In June 2014, Grindeks reported that it had made an advance payment of EUR11.67mn as part of a 2012 deal to acquire Slovakia-based company, HBM Pharma, in a deal worth EUR13.1mn. The remaining amount of the payment will be made after the re-registration of shares to Grindeks according to Slovak legislation. Grindeks commented that it anticipates the transaction to be completed in 2014; following completion, HBM Pharma will be included in Grindeks' Group structure.

BMI Economic View: International credit rating agency Fitch has raised Latvia's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
22
Latvia
23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2010-2018)
24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Latvia 2012-2018)
25
Other Healthcare Data
26
Table: Physicians By Specialty, 2004-2010
26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
31
Risks To Outlook
35
Table: Economic Activity (Latvia 2009-2018)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Latvia Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 1990-2010
47
Table: New Cases of Cancer, 2004-2010
49
Table: Cumulative Reported Cases of HIV and AIDS, 2000-2010
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Healthcare Sector Funding
51
Healthcare Provision
53
Table: Hospitals & Beds, 2006-2010
54
Table: Hospital Beds by Specialty, 2004-2010
54
Research & Development
55
Biotechnology
56
Clinical Trials
58
Regulatory Development
59
Regional Collaboration
60
Intellectual Property Developments
61
Pricing Regime
62
Reimbursement Regime
64
Competitive Landscape
66
Pharmaceutical Industry
66
Table: Licences Issued To Companies Engaged In Pharmaceutical Manufacturing And Distribution, 2007-2011
66
Table: Medicines Consumption According To Marketing Authorisation Holders (turnover in LVL)
67
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
68
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
69
Table: Wholesale Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
70
Table: Wholesalers Market Share, 2010 (%)
71
Pharmaceutical Retail
72
Table: Pharmacy Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
72
Table: Licences Issued To Pharmacies
74
Company Profile
76
Grindeks
76
Olainfarm
82
Pfizer
86
GlaxoSmithKline
88
Sanofi
91
Novartis
93
Merck & Co
95
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
98
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
99
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
100
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
100
Glossary
101
Methodology
103
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
103
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
103
Notes On Methodology
104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
105
Ratings Overview
106
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
106
Indicator Weightings
107

The Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc