Business Monitor International


Latvia Freight Transport Report

Published 07 January 2014

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Latvia Freight Transport Report

We retain our reasonably positive outlook towards Latvia's external accounts. While some longer-term challenges do remain in play, Latvia's current account deficit remains one of the smallest in the EU, and we believe that an increasingly dominant services account surplus will help to offset any future weakness from the trade deficit.

We have revised up our forecasts for the current account deficit, which we expect to be 1.5% of GDP in 2013 and 1.2% of GDP in 2014. Latvia's accession to the eurozone in January 2014 is not expected to have a major impact on the current account, although a slight acceleration in exports might be experienced as a result due to reduced transactional costs.

In Q213, the current account posted a surplus equivalent to 0.8% of GDP, driven primarily by a decline in commodity imports, although we expect the current account to slip back into deficit in the second half of the year. The trade deficit dropped to 0.6% of GDP in the same period, while import growth became slightly negative on the back of weaker intermediate and capital goods imports. We attribute the shift to shrinking production volumes of export-oriented companies and low investment activity, although these trends should reverse in 2014 as external demand shows further sign of improvement.

A discussion regarding the opportunities for the development of freight transport in the transport corridor between the Baltic and Black Sea was held between Latvian Transport Minister Anrijs Matiss and Turkish Transport and Communication Minister Binali Yildirim, reported LETA/Nozare.lv in April 2013, citing the Ministry of Transport. The meeting was organised on April 2 in Riga. The ministers entered into a protocol of intent on cooperation in transport and logistics, including the growth of freight transport between Turkey and the Baltic Sea on the Zubr container freight railroad. Additionally, both ministers agreed to a fact that there exists enormous potential for additional...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Latvia Freight Transport Industry SWOT
7
Latvia Political SWOT
8
Latvia Economic SWOT
8
Latvia Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Maritime
10
Air
12
Rail
13
Market Overview
15
Industry Forecast
18
Macroeconomic Outlook
18
Air Freight
18
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
19
Rail Freight
19
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
19
Road Freight
20
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
20
Trade
20
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
21
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
22
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
24
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
25
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
29
Political Outlook
34
Domestic Politics
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
35
Macroeconomic Outlook
38
Table: Latvia - Economic Activity, 2008-2016
40
Company Profiles
41
LDz Cargo
41
Latvian Shipping Company (LSC)
43
Latvia Demographic Outlook
46
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
47
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
48
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
49
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
49
BMI Methodology
50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
50
Transport Industry
50
Sources
51

The Latvia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Latvia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc