Business Monitor International


Latvia Autos Report

Published 17 November 2014

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Latvia Autos Report

2014 has proved a positive year for new vehicle sales within Latvia. Over the first nine months of the year, passenger car (PC) sales were up by 19% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 9,239 units, according to figures from the European Auto Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

On the commercial vehicle side, 8M14 figures from ACEA show a total of 1,658 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) sold in country, with a further 754 medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold, plus a further 137 buses, for a total of 2,549 units sold year-to-date.

Adding the 2,549 CV units to the 8,445 PCs sold over 8M14 makes for a total new vehicle market of 10,994 units. On current sales trends, this leaves the Latvian new vehicle sales market on target to hit BMI's forecast of 16,384 units for the full year.

Looking forward, BMI's Country Risk team believes that the ongoing sanctions being levied against Russia by Western powers (as a result of Russia's activities in neighbouring Ukraine) could well impact on the Latvian economy as we enter 2015. Latvia is suffer ing in particular from the disruptions to trade imposed by first the West and now, in retaliation, by Russia. Russia remains a major export market for Latvia, especially in industries such as fish processing and dairy production. Even without these sanctions, we believe that decelerating Russian growth will translate into weaker external demand for Latvian exports. This could impact on CV sales within Latvia in particular.

The outlook for private consumption, a key indicator of the potential demand for new passenger vehicles within Latvia, is somewhat better. Moreover, against a backdrop of subdued inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to keep interest rates at very low levels (the current lending rate was cut to just 0.05% in September 2014 and the deposit rate was cut to -0.2%), which should in turn lead to lower car financing rates and act as a support to Latvian new vehicle demand over the near term. This is why we...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
4
SWOT Analysis
5
Latvia Autos Industry SWOT
5
Latvia Political SWOT
6
Latvia Economic SWOT
6
Latvia Business Environment SWOT
7
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
8
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
8
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
8
CEE Regional Overview
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
20
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
24
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Sales
25
Table: Passenger Cars Sales, 2010-2017
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
27
Competitive Landscape
30
Cars
30
Table: Latvia - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2011
31
Table: Latvia - Top 10 Best-Selling Models, August 2012
32
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Latvia - New CV Sales 2010
32
Table: Top 10 Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers, 2011
33
Suppliers
34
Alternative Fuels
35
Company Monitor
37
Company Profiles
39
Toyota Motor
39
Inchcape
40
Country Snapshot
41
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
42
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
43
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
44
Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
44
BMI Methodology
45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
45
Sources
46

The Latvia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Latvia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Latvia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Latvian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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