Business Monitor International


Latvia Autos Report

Published 04 December 2013

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Latvia Autos Report

BMI forecasts a 1.4% drop in total vehicle sales in 2013, despite an expected uptick in the passenger car segment, on the back of our bearish outlook for commercial vehicles (CVs). In 2014, we forecast a 4.2% increase in vehicle sales as the industry shows signs of resurgence.

Despite our initially bearish outlook on the segment, we now expect to see a resurgence in Latvia's passenger car segment. Indeed, on the back of recent growth, lower base effects, and a pick-up in broader measures of retail spending, we now expect to see 3% growth in passenger car sales in 2013.

BMI maintains a generally bearish outlook on the commercial vehicle (CV) segment in Latvia. Industrial production has remained fairly weak throughout 2013, and tepid external demand has weighed on broader measures of economic growth. We believe that this, combined with high base effects from strong sales growth in 2012, has served to temper CV demand over the course of the year. Accordingly, we forecast a 9% drop in LCV sales in 2013, as base effects in Q4 help buoy the y-o-y growth rate for the LCV segment while dampening growth in the heavy truck segment.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
4
SWOT Analysis
5
Latvia Autos Industry SWOT
5
Latvia Political SWOT
6
Latvia Economic SWOT
6
Latvia Business Environment SWOT
7
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
8
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
8
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
8
CEE Regional Overview
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
20
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
24
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Sales
25
Table: Passenger Cars Sales, 2010-2017
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
27
Competitive Landscape
30
Cars
30
Table: Latvia - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2011
31
Table: Latvia - Top 10 Best-Selling Models, August 2012
32
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Latvia - New CV Sales 2010
32
Table: Top 10 Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers, 2011
33
Suppliers
34
Alternative Fuels
35
Company Monitor
37
Company Profiles
39
Toyota Motor
39
Inchcape
40
Country Snapshot
41
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
42
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
43
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
44
Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
44
BMI Methodology
45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
45
Sources
46

The Latvia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Latvia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Latvia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Latvian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc