Business Monitor International

Kenya Tourism Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 58 pages
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Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View:   For 2015, we are forecasting a slight turnaround in the beleaguered Kenyan tourism sector's fortunes, with arrival numbers set to rise by 2.5%. However, this remains dependent on a lasting improvement in the domestic security situation.   We are also expecting slight rises in international tourism receipts and the number of overnight stays in 2015.

At the present time, Kenya's tourism sector is facing not only terror threats but also a public perception that travellers could be at risk of contracting the Ebola virus if they travel to Africa. In August 2014, the World Health Organisation (WHO) stated that Kenya was a 'high-risk' country for the spread of Ebola, given its role as a regional transport hub, although there had been no reported cases of the disease within the East African state as this report was being compiled in late October 2014. In August, Kenya banned all travellers from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone - the West African states where the disease has been most prevalent - from entering the country

Further bolstering the sector was news in October 2014 that Trade Mark East Africa (TMEA) and the Kenya Tourism Federation (KTF) had awarded KES9mn to a scheme that seeks to boost regional awareness of the East Africa Tourist Visa (EATV) as well as the use of ID cards (instead of passports) to enable a single trip encompassing the three countries of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.

The EATV was launched in February 2014 and allows travellers from any country multiple entries to Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda for a period of 90 days. However, the scheme has suffered from a lack of awareness, with the KTF now looking to work with key industry players to promote the EATV as a way of boosting tourism to all three East African countries and to market regional cross-border travel which can be effected using national ID cards.

Kenya's Tourism Risk Rewards Index score has improved slightly in our new table for Q115, from 34.61, to 38.98. However, this still...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Kenya's International Tourism Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Breakdown Of Methods Of Tourist Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Domestic Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence In Kenya
Table: Kenya's Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
Company Profile
Heritage Hotels
TPS East Africa
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Arrivals
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc