Business Monitor International


Kenya Tourism Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 60 pages
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$1,295.00
Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View: BMI has extended its forecast period to 2018. W e continue to believe that the short-term outlook for Kenyan tourism remains clouded, although there may be scope for stronger growth in visitor numbers and revenue figures towards the end of the forecast period.

In light of what we believe will have been a very challenging 2013 for the local tourism industry, BMI has made a sharp downward revision to its forecasts for the value of Kenya's hotels and restaurants industry over the forecast period to 2018. We believe that the value of the industry will now decline by some 4% in US dollar terms over the coming five years, down from a prior forecast of 14% growth, on the back of smaller-than-expected rises in tourist arrivals and revenues and with 2013 likely to have proven a very low base from which the industry can start to recover.

For 2014 itself, BMI believes that the after-effects of the September 2013 Westgate mall terrorist attack will continue to undermine Kenya's struggling tourism sector, which was already reeling after political tensions in Q113 and the damaging fire at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) in August, at least until Q214. As such, although we forecast a slight rebound in tourist numbers in 2014, with further steady growth of around 3.75% a year to 2018, this would still indicate that tourist arrivals will not return to their 2011 peak over our forecast period.

Beyond 2014, much will depend on the future evolution of the domestic security situation. Most analysts, including BMI, believe the Westgate attack was a one-off incident, with a low probability of a similar event happening again in the short term. Certainly, leading hotel chains remain optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Kenya, with Marriott Hotels' President for Middle East and Africa, Alex Kyriakidis, stating just after the attack that it was an 'isolated incident' that would be unlikely to have a long-term impact on Kenya. Marriott remains committed...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Inbound Tourism
15
Table: Kenya Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
16
Outbound Tourism
16
Table: Kenya Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
17
Table: Kenya Outbound Tourism, Top 10 countries by departure, 2010-2017
18
Travel
18
Table: Kenya International Tourism Receipts for Transport and Travel, 2010-2017
18
Table: Kenya Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel, 2010-2017
20
Hotels
20
Table: Kenya Hotel Accommodation, 2010-2017
20
Table: Kenya Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017
21
Macroeconomic Forecast
22
Economic Analysis
22
Table: Kenya - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Security Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence in Kenya
29
Table: Kenya Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
32
Table: Kenya Transport Infrastructure Projects - Rail
33
Company Profile
34
Heritage Hotels
34
TPS East Africa
35
Global Industry Overview
37
Table: Global Tourism Indicators, International Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017
37
Table: global tourism indicators, hotel and establishment units, 2009-2017
38
Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022
40
Global Assumptions
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
45
Table: Developed States - Real GDP Growth Forecasts, %
46
Table: Emerging Markets - Real GDP Growth Forecasts, %
47
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
49
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
54
Tourism Industry
54
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
55

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Ratings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc