Business Monitor International


Kenya Tourism Report

Published 27 May 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View: The bomb attacks in Nairobi and Mombasa in early May 2014 underline how precarious the short-term outlook for Kenyan tourism remains. BMI remains pessimistic on the outlook for tourism arrivals in 2014.

On May 4 2014, there were several bomb attacks in Kenya. There were explosions on two buses travelling on the outskirts of the capital Nairobi - leaving three people dead and at least 62 injured. In Mombasa, a grenade was thrown onto a bus - killing four and wounding 15, while a separate explosion on a beach near the Reef Hotel did not lead to any reported casualties .

These new bomb attacks act as a reminder that the security situation in Kenya is continuing to deteriorate. Although Kenya's Deputy President William Ruto has remained defiant, stating that the government will not recall its troops from Somalia until the Islamist group al-Shabaab has been defeated, the fact remains that armed groups seem able to carry out small-scale attacks seemingly at will.

Against this deteriorating backdrop, world governments retain their advisories not to travel to parts of the country. The UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office advises 'against all but essential travel to areas within 60km of the Kenya-Somali border; to Kiwayu and coastal areas north of Pate Island; to Garissa District; to the Eastleigh area of Nairobi; and to low-income areas of Nairobi, including all township or slum areas'. It also states quite clearly on its website that 'there is a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping'.

The release of 2013 arrivals data fully supports BMI's downbeat stance on the Kenyan tourism sector. International tourist arrivals were down by 15.8%, to 1.49mn, with little suggesting a near-term turnaround in the outlook for the troubled sector at present.

Unsurprisingly, Tourism Secretary Phyllis Kandie attributed the fall in arrivals to the increasing instability within Kenya, as evidenced by the September 2013 Nairobi mall attack (and the more recent...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Inbound Tourism
16
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018
16
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
18
Outbound Tourism
19
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018
19
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
20
Travel
20
Table: Kenya's International Tourism Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
21
Table: Breakdown Of Methods Of Tourist Travel, 2011-2018
23
Hotels
23
Table: Kenya's Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
24
Table: Kenya's Domestic Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Security Risk Ratings
28
Market Overview
30
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence In Kenya
31
Table: Kenya's Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
35
Company Profile
36
Heritage Hotels
36
TPS East Africa
38
Global Industry Overview
41
Table: Global Arrivals
41
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
42
Global Assumptions
43
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
44
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
45
Developed States
46
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
46
Emerging Markets
48
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
49
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
50
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc