Business Monitor International

Kenya Tourism Report

Published 24 October 2014

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Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View: The continued deterioration of the security situation in Kenya has led BMI to revise down its 2014 forecast for tourist arrivals, with the short-term outlook for the sector remaining precarious . However, should the security situation stabilise, then there are reasons for guarded long-term optimism.

2014 looks set to be another terrible year for the Kenyan tourism sector, with several terrorist attacks in the country over June and July further undermining what was already a fairly downbeat near-term outlook. Although there have been no official 2014 data released as yet by the Ministry of East African Affairs, Commerce and Tourism, a July 2014 report in The Star newspaper suggested that international tourist arrivals were down by 7% as a result of the worsening security situation.

Given the recent terrorist incidents, and a general feeling that the security situation in certain parts of the country remains largely out of the control of the local security forces, BMI believes the time is right to make an additional downward revision to our 2014 tourist arrivals forecast. We now believe that arrivals will fall by 12.0%, to 1.27mn. There will also be additional downward pressure on tourism revenues in 2014 as a result, which we expect to fall by 13.0% in US dollar terms, to USD1.36bn.

Disruptions to the tourism sector pose a serious risk to Kenya's increasingly fragile economic recovery. We predict that 2014 tourism receipts will be worth USD1.36bn, a figure equivalent to 3.0% of GDP, or more than a third of Kenya's current account deficit. Estimates of the total economic effect of the tourism sector - including indirect demand - vary, but the World Travel and Tourism Council calculates that the industry is worth 12.1% of GDP and employs around 4% of the workforce. This would make tourism Kenya's second largest industry.

BMI projects a slight turnaround in 2015, with arrivals rising by 2.5% to 1.30mn. Although terrorism in Kenya is generating...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Kenya's International Tourism Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Breakdown Of Methods Of Tourist Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
Table: Kenya's Domestic Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence In Kenya
Table: Kenya's Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
Company Profile
Heritage Hotels
TPS East Africa
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Arrivals
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc