Business Monitor International


Kenya Telecommunications Report

Published 03 June 2014

  • 100 pages
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The Kenya telecoms market is undergoing a number of key developments , with Yu Mobile finalising a deal to sell its assets to rivals Safaricom and Airtel, while Telkom Kenya (Orange) is also undergoing sale procedures to exit the market. D ownward pressure on voice revenues, low ARPUs and the high instance of prepaid subscriptions due to fierce competition has come t o a head in the first months of 2014 and may get worse following the licensing of MVNOs . This points to the growing difficulty of operating in the country, when Safaricom, and its M-Pesa service, maintains a stranglehold on customer additions and makes it almost impossible for other operators to effectively compete and regulators to curb its position. The establishment of a new regulator, the Information and Communication Technology Authority of Kenya (ICTA) will be given more powers to bring down Safaricom's dominance, but we believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Nevertheless, penetration remains low and o ur five-year forecast, through to 2018, reflects the slow and steady growth we expect in the mobile sector. T he fixed-line sector is characterised by the introduction of converged services for corporate and residential users, growing competition in the sector and downward pressure from fixed to mobile substitution.

Key Data

  • Kenya's mobile market grew by 1.9% y-o-y in 2013 to bring the total subscribers to 31.308mn.

  • Mobile ARPU declined by 0.2% in2013, consolidating at KES442.9 for the year .

  • The fixed-line sector contracted by 18.2% in 2013 and finished the year with 2.059mn subscriptions.

  • The number of internet users in Kenya increased by 31% in the 12 months to December 2013.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Kenya is ranked 10 th on BMI's Q214 Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR), down from 9 th in the previous quarter. The country saw improvement in its overall score, however, this was not enough to stop it from falling in our rankings. The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile
9
Fixed Line
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Mobile
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
17
ARPU
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast
19
Fixed-Line
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line - Historical Data & Forecast
21
Broadband
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, Q313
28
Kenya Risk Reward Ratings
29
Market Overview
31
Mobile
31
Table: Kenya Mobile Regional Comparison, 2012
32
Key Developments
32
Mobile Growth
33
Market Shares
34
Table: Kenya Mobile Market
35
Subscriber Mix
36
Table: Postpaid Vs Prepaid Subscribers
36
Usage
37
Networks
38
Mobile Content
39
Mobile Operator Tables
43
Table: Mobile Market Overview
43
Table: Safaricom
43
Table: Airtel
44
Table: Orange
44
Table: YU
45
Mobile Content
46
Non-Voice Revenue Contribution Head Into Double Digits
46
Diversity Of Services
47
Mobile Crossovers Still In The Mix
48
M2M Debuts In Africa
49
Fixed-Line
50
Broadband
52
Table: Kenya Internet Access By Technologies And Subscriptions ('000), September 2012
54
International Connectivity
55
Table: Fixed-Line Developments
63
Industry Trends And Developments
65
Regulatory Development
66
Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
66
Competitive Landscape
70
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector
70
Table: Selected Operator Financial Indicators (US$mn)
70
Company Profile
71
Telkom Kenya
71
Safaricom
75
Regional Overview
79
Background
80
2012 Achievements
80
Financial Results
82
Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000)
82
Demographic Forecast
83
Demographic Data
83
Section 1: Population
83
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
83
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
83
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
84
Table: Education, 2002-2005
84
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
84
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
84
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
84
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
88
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
89
Table: Ratings Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
91

The Kenya Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kenya's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kenya Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kenya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kenya's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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