Business Monitor International


Kenya Telecommunications Report

Published 03 June 2014

  • 100 pages
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The imminent exit of YU Mobile from Kenya's mobile market will do little to ease the downward pressure on mobile tariffs and operators' voice revenues considering the expected entry of mobile virtual network operators into the market. As a result, we retain our view of revenue stream diversification as the most sustainable growth strategy for service providers. The Kenyan market is suitable for the implementation of telecoms crossover services and operators must explore opportunities to monetise the delivery of these services in the same manner as they have done with mobile financial services.

Key Data

  • Kenya's mobile market grew by 1.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q114, compared with a contraction of 2.9% q-o-q during the same period in 2013.

  • Mobile ARPU appreciation continued in 2014, with Safaricom recording a 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in mobile ARPU in the 12 months to March 2014.

  • The rate contraction in the fixed-line sector eased in Q114, with number of active lines decreasing by just 0.7% q-o-q.

  • The number of internet users in Kenya increased by 31.8% in the 12 months to March 2014.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Kenya is ranked 10th on BMI's Q414 Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR), unchanged from the previous quarter. The country's overall score was also unchanged at 46.9, above the regional average aggregate score of 40.5. Kenya scores above average in all the four categories on our ratings table. The industry rewards score is sustained by ARPU, while the launch of a more powerful telecoms regulator, the Communications Authority of Kenya (CAK), reflects the industry risks score of 70. Kenya's mobile telecoms market is one of the most dynamic in the region, but it is held back by low ARPUs in the mobile sector and limited network coverage in the fixed-line sector. The country already has one of Africa's most sophisticated economies, and we predict that rising incomes will see increased demand for the goods and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile
9
Fixed Line
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Mobile
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
17
ARPU
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast
19
Fixed-Line
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line - Historical Data & Forecast
21
Broadband
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, Q313
28
Kenya Risk Reward Ratings
29
Market Overview
31
Mobile
31
Table: Kenya Mobile Regional Comparison, 2012
32
Key Developments
32
Mobile Growth
33
Market Shares
34
Table: Kenya Mobile Market
35
Subscriber Mix
36
Table: Postpaid Vs Prepaid Subscribers
36
Usage
37
Networks
38
Mobile Content
39
Mobile Operator Tables
43
Table: Mobile Market Overview
43
Table: Safaricom
43
Table: Airtel
44
Table: Orange
44
Table: YU
45
Mobile Content
46
Non-Voice Revenue Contribution Head Into Double Digits
46
Diversity Of Services
47
Mobile Crossovers Still In The Mix
48
M2M Debuts In Africa
49
Fixed-Line
50
Broadband
52
Table: Kenya Internet Access By Technologies And Subscriptions ('000), September 2012
54
International Connectivity
55
Table: Fixed-Line Developments
63
Industry Trends And Developments
65
Regulatory Development
66
Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
66
Competitive Landscape
70
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector
70
Table: Selected Operator Financial Indicators (US$mn)
70
Company Profile
71
Telkom Kenya
71
Safaricom
75
Regional Overview
79
Background
80
2012 Achievements
80
Financial Results
82
Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000)
82
Demographic Forecast
83
Demographic Data
83
Section 1: Population
83
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
83
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
83
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
84
Table: Education, 2002-2005
84
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
84
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
84
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
84
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
88
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
89
Table: Ratings Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
91

The Kenya Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kenya's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kenya Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kenya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kenya's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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