Business Monitor International


Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 111 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Investment into Kenya's healthcare sector by pharmaceutical and medical device companies is an advisable business strategy - as highlighted by the high growth forecast in healthcare spending between 2013 and 2018. However, we note that there are downside risks to our forecast , including government inefficiencies and the out-of-pocket characteristics of the market , which will act as challenges for companies looking for a rapid return on investment.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: KES55.29bn (USD642mn) in 2013 to KES64.32bn (USD742mn) in 2014; 16.3% growth in local currency terms and 15.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: KES184.27bn (USD2.14bn) in 2013 to KES207.59bn (USD2.40bn) in 2014; 12.7% growth in local currency terms and 12.0% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

In BMI's Q414 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings  (RRRs), Kenya is 19th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). A large counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments

On June 12 2014, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich presented Kenya's KES1.8trn (USD20.57bn) budget for the 2014/2015 fiscal year, which will begin on July 1 2014. For healthcare, a total of KES47.4bn (USD541mn) has been allocated to the sector, focused on enhancing the quality and accessibility of healthcare services in the country.

In July 2014, Kenya's Reproductive Health Care Bill received mixed reactions, with some in support of the bill, claiming that it will lower the HIV infection rate and help address the increasing incidence of teenage pregnancy. Meanwhile others have criticised it, stating that it will affect children's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, USDmn (Kenya 2012-2018)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, KESmn (Kenya 2012-2018)
27
Other Healthcare Data
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Outlook
33
Table: Kenya - GDP By Expenditure
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Middle East & Africa
41
Kenya Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Provision
56
Healthcare Sector Financing
56
Health Insurance
58
Private Healthcare
61
Supply Chain
62
Research & Development
63
Clinical Trials
65
Regulatory Development
67
Regulatory Regime
67
Intellectual Property
68
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
68
Competitive Landscape
70
Pharmaceutical Industry Activity
72
Company Profile
74
Dawa Limited
74
Universal Corporation Limited
76
Shelys Pharmaceuticals
78
Regal Pharmaceuticals
80
High Chem East Africa
81
GlaxoSmithKline
82
Pfizer
85
Novartis
88
Sanofi
91
Merck & Co
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Methodology
101
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Notes On Methodology
102
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
103
Ratings Overview
104
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
104
Indicator Weightings
105

The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc