Business Monitor International


Kenya Freight Transport Report

Published 15 January 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Freight Transport Report

An accelerating domestic economy and rising demand in key export markets will cause Kenya's current account deficit to gradually narrow over the coming years. We predict that the country's current account shortfall will shrink from the 8.3% of GDP in 2014 to 5.6% in 2018. The key driver of Kenya's current account shortfall is the country's gaping trade deficit, which is driven by high demand for oil, manufactured goods and consumer products. This will provide some comfort for the Kenyan freight industry.

This wide trade deficit is partially offset by surpluses in the service and transfer accounts. Kenya's service exports are among the largest in the region, and reflect the earnings of the country's large travel and tourism sector. Despite a series of set-backs in 2013 (including an airport fire and the September Westgate attack), BMI holds a positive long-term view of the industry, and believes that it will continue to bring in needed foreign exchange.

There are three key reasons why BMI believes that Kenya's current account deficit will narrow over the coming years: strong export growth, lower energy prices, and increased economic diversification. These factors will all reduce the trade deficit, addressing the key cause of a current account shortfall.

Kenya's position as the economic hub of East Africa means that the economy is highly exposed to increased demand in its fast-growing region. BMI expects that real GDP growth in Uganda and Tanzania will remain highly elevated over the coming years due to surging investment and the expansion of the resource sector. This will boost demand for Kenyan goods and services.

Air freight is set to be the outperformer in terms of the Kenyan freight mix in 2014 with healthy year-on-year (y-o-y) gains expected (8.78%). While the fire at Jomo Kenyatta International did present some risk, in large part due to the cause of the blaze being unknown at first (with terrorist attack not ruled out), the BBC reported in October that the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Macroeconomic Outlook
15
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
16
Maritime Freight
16
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2010-2017
16
Rail Freight
16
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
17
Trade
17
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
18
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
19
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Economic Outlook
20
Table: Kenya - Economic Activity
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Air Freight
33
Rail Freight
34
Road Freight
38
Maritime Freight
39
Company Profile
43
Kenya Airways Cargo (KQ Cargo)
43
Regional Overview
46
Political Outlook
46
Domestic Politics I
46
Table: Kenya Political Overview
49
Domestic Politics II
49
Long-Term Political Outlook
51
Global Industry Overview
56
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
57
Refiners: Faltering Light At The End Of The Tunnel
59
Jet Fuel: Middle East Posts Strongest Demand As Global Air Traffic Slumps
61
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
62
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
63
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
65
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
65
Demographic Forecast
67
Kenya Demographic Data
67
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
68
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
69
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
70
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
70
Methodology
71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
71
Transport Industry
72
Sources
72

The Kenya Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Kenya Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc