Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

Published 23 April 2014

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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: Central Asia is a rapidly evolving and growing market for petrochemicals that has been heavily import dependent in recent years. Over the medium term, the two most industrialised countries, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are set to become net exporters with the construction of world-scale complexes likely to stimulate downstream investment in plastic and rubber conversion industries .

In the Central Asia region, only two states are active participants in the petrochemicals sector - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Neither has significant existing ethylene capacity. In fact, their combined cracking capacity of 240,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) is less than that of Nigeria or Egypt. Uzbekistan is landlocked, and hence is faced with considerable transportation costs for its energy exports. Overall demand for chemicals has been on the rise across all sectors of the processing industry. The chemicals and plastics industry has generally maintained an import surplus. Realising the immense potential that lies in refining, petrochemistry and other value-added projects, the government has set forth major development plans.

Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries (KPI) is pushing ahead with a US$6bn investment to construct an ethane-fuelled petrochemical complex that will include an 800,000tpa ethane cracker and a 500,000tpa propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and polypropylene (PP) plant by 2015. The second stage of the project, due for completion in 2017, should have the following production capacities: 1mn tpa of ethylene, 400,000tpa of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and 400,000tpa of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE).

In Uzbekistan, recent developments have concerned the creation of a 50:50 JV between South Korea's KOGAS and Uzbekneftegaz, the Ustyurt gas-chemicals complex, which began construction in 2011 and will have capacities of 400,000tpa polyethylene (PE) and 100,000tpa PP when completed in 2016. This should be followed by a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Kazakhstan And Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
7
Central Asia Security SWOT
8
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
9
Central Asia Political SWOT
10
Global Petrochemicals Overview
11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
15
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, 2010-2016
16
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
20
European Petrochemicals Overview
25
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Market Overview
29
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Facilities 2010
30
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Industry Forecast Scenario
34
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Projects
35
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
36
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Kazakhstan
37
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
40
Uzbekistan
40
Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
41
Company Profiles
42
KazMunaiGaz
42
Uzbekneftegaz
44
Aktau Plastics Plant (Akpo)
46
Glossary of Terms
47
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
47
Country Snapshot
48
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
BMI Methodology
52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
52
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
53
Cross Checks
54
Business Environment Ratings
54
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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