Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

Published 09 December 2014

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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

Russia's economic problems stemming from its trade war with the West are having a negative impact on the Central Asian petrochemicals market with Kazakhstan's imports dropping sharply in 2014. BMI's latest Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report anticipates further falls in imports as both states prepare for a surge in capacity in 2016.

Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will have sufficient production to cover domestic needs with a surplus likely to stimulate polymers conversion and boost exports. The Central Asian market is robust and growing fast, providing a sound basis for new petrochemicals capacities.

Most consumption will be focused on finished products with a lack of domestic plastics converters to fulfil demand. This could change as domestic petrochemicals capacities evolve, enabling local sourcing of cheap raw material for the manufacturing of end products.

  • The ongoing USD6bn modernisation of Kazakhstan's refining sector, combined with the construction of several smaller scale refineries, is expected to increase Kazakhstan's refining capacity by 14.7% to 2023.

  • In 2016, Kazakhstan is set to complete construction of a major petrochemicals complex in the Atyrau region that is designed to produce 1mn tpa of ethylene, 500,000tpa propylene, 500,000tpa polypropylene (PP) 400,000tpa of low density polyethylene (LDPE) 400,000tpa of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE).

  • Uzbekistan should also begin operations in 2016 at an ethane cracker with capacity to produce 400,000tpa of ethylene as well as downstream units with capacity for 400,000tpa HDPE and 100,000tpa PP.

  • In 2014, Central Asia's petrochemicals capacities include 240,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 125,000tpa polyethylene (PE) and 120,000tpa polypropylene (PP). These capacities are set to surge over the next five years as a result of planned developments in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. By 2019, Central Asia will have olefins capacities of 1.64mn tpa...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Kazakhstan And Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
7
Central Asia Security SWOT
8
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
9
Central Asia Political SWOT
10
Global Petrochemicals Overview
11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
15
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, 2010-2016
16
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
20
European Petrochemicals Overview
25
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Market Overview
29
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Facilities 2010
30
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Industry Forecast Scenario
34
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Projects
35
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
36
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Kazakhstan
37
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
40
Uzbekistan
40
Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
41
Company Profiles
42
KazMunaiGaz
42
Uzbekneftegaz
44
Aktau Plastics Plant (Akpo)
46
Glossary of Terms
47
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
47
Country Snapshot
48
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
BMI Methodology
52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
52
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
53
Cross Checks
54
Business Environment Ratings
54
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc