BMI View: BMI's outlook on auto production and sales in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains positive, despite a slowdown in sales figures in the first eight months of 2014. Both countries boast solid macroeconomic fundamentals and both are seeing strong demand for cars from their citizens.
Turning to production first, Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI's five-year forecast period to 2017. This reflects new production plans by carmakers Toyota Motor and Russia's AvtoVAZ and Kazakh AutoBIPEK.
Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI's forecast period to 2018. We estimate production to have grown in 2014 by 9.5%, increasing to 15.2% in 2015. B MI believes Kazakhstan should be well positioned to continue attracting investment from auto manufacturers. Domestic sales are robust, and the country is a viable location for export production. We therefore maintain a bullish outlook on production growth over the long term.
In June 2014, Toyota Motor Corporation started the production of the complete knock-down (CKD) of the Fortuner sports utility vehicle (SUV) at Saryarka AvtoProm (SAP)'s Kostanay plant in Kazakhstan. The move marks the beginning of production by the automaker in Central Asia. Nearly 3,000 vehicles will be manufactured annually at the plant, where SAP has recruited 100 more employees.
On the 1 October, the CEOs of 'AvtoVAZ' and 'Auto BIPEK' signed an agreement on strategic cooperation in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. AvtoVAZ will construct a factory in Kazakhstan with Azia Avto. The Lada Vesta will be produced at the site from 2016. The companies intend to produce around 120,000 units a year at the new factory.
For Uzbekistan, BMI is generally upbeat on the outlook for auto production over the forecast period. For 2014, we are targeting a 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in production with total units rising to 301,096. In 2015,...
The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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