Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report

Published 13 November 2013

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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report

BMI View:   BMI's outlook on auto production and sales in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains positive, despite a slowdown in sales figures in the first eight months of 2014. Both countries boast solid macroeconomic fundamentals and both are seeing strong demand for cars from their citizens.

Turning to production first, Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI's five-year forecast period to 2017. This reflects new production plans by carmakers  Toyota Motor  and Russia's AvtoVAZ  and Kazakh AutoBIPEK.

Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI's forecast period to 2018. We estimate production to have grown in 2014 by 9.5%, increasing to 15.2% in 2015. B MI believes Kazakhstan should be well positioned to continue attracting investment from auto manufacturers. Domestic sales are robust, and the country is a viable location for export production. We therefore maintain a bullish outlook on production growth over the long term.

In June 2014, Toyota Motor Corporation started the production of the complete knock-down (CKD) of the Fortuner sports utility vehicle (SUV) at Saryarka AvtoProm (SAP)'s Kostanay plant in Kazakhstan. The move marks the beginning of production by the automaker in Central Asia. Nearly 3,000 vehicles will be manufactured annually at the plant, where SAP has recruited 100 more employees.

On the 1 October, the CEOs of 'AvtoVAZ' and 'Auto BIPEK' signed an agreement on strategic cooperation in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. AvtoVAZ will construct a factory in Kazakhstan with Azia Avto. The Lada Vesta will be produced at the site from 2016. The companies intend to produce around 120,000 units a year at the new factory.

For Uzbekistan, BMI is generally upbeat on the outlook for auto production over the forecast period. For 2014, we are targeting a 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in production with total units rising to 301,096. In 2015,...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Central Asia Auto Industry SWOT
6
Global Overview
7
Global Autos Update: Moderation Will Be Overarching Theme
7
PASSENGER CAR SALES, UNITS, 2012
7
CEE Regional Overview
12
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
19
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
23
Macroeconomic Forecast
24
Kazakhstan
24
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
26
Uzbekistan
27
Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity, 2009-2016
28
Industry Forecast Scenario
29
Sales - Kazakhstan
29
Table: Kazakhstan Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
29
Production - Kazakhstan
30
Sales - Uzbekistan
31
Table: Uzbekistan Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
31
Production - Uzbekistan
31
Competitive Landscape
33
Market Overview
33
Passenger Cars
34
Table: Top 10 Auto Companies In Kazakhstan (August 2012 Sales)
34
Commercial Vehicles
34
Table: Top 5 Commercial Vehicle Companies In Kazakhstan (2011 Sales)
35
Regulatory Developments
36
Company Monitor
37
GM Uzbekistan
39
AziaAvto
40
Demographic Outlook
41
Kazakhstan
41
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
42
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
43
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
44
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
44
Uzbekistan
45
Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
46
Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
47
Table: Uzbekistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
48
Table: Uzbekistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
48
BMI Methodology
49
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
49
Sources
50

The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc