Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan Power Report

Published 12 September 2014

  • 56 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kazakhstan Power Report

BMI View: We expect healthy growth in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI's 10-year forecast period to 2023 , in terms of generation and consumption. Coal will retain its dominance, accounting for over 80% of the country's energy generation by 2023. However, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and solar projects in the pipeline. The government also plan s to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy, helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with Kazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over the 10-year period. For much of the forecast period, system losses will be considerable, but steady investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure will narrow the supply/demand gap significantly .

Key T rends A nd D evelopments

  • Plans for privatising the electricity sector remain live. In July, the government confirmed its intention to list shares in the Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company, Samruk- Energo , Kazakhstan Temir Zholy and KazAtomProm in a People's IPO in December 2014. The final number of shares to be floated and the price will be decided in due course.

  • Plans to integrate Kazakhstan's power sector into a regional market were boosted by the government's decision in June to sign up to the new Eurasian Economic Union. The trade bloc, which is due to be launched in January 2015, consists initially of Russia and Belarus, but will potentially also include Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

  • In a bid to improve the internal distribution of electricity, the government embarked on construction of a 1,500km north-south transmission line in July. Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) agreed a mandate letter with the government on financing a USD25mn project to modernise electricity distribution networks in the Kyzylorda region.

  • The government's commitment to developing its renewables sector took a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan Snapshot
11
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
12
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2022
13
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
15
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
16
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
22
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
29
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Rewards
29
Risks
30
Market Overview
31
Key Policies And Market Structure
31
Regulation and Competition
31
Pricing
31
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database
32
Table: Major Projects - Power
32
Competitive Landscape
34
KEGOC
34
AES
34
Company Profile
35
Samruk-Energo
35
Regional Overview
38
CEE Industry Overview
38
Glossary
44
Table: Glossary of Terms
44
Methodology
45
Industry Forecasts
45
Power Industry - Data Methodology
46
Generation and Consumption Data
46
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
50
Sources
51

The Kazakhstan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Kazakhstan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Kazakhstan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc