Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan Mining Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 75 pages
 
$1,295.00
Kazakhstan Mining Report

BMI View:   We expect consistent growth in Kazakhstan's mining industry through 2018, averaging 2.5% on average per ann um and reaching a value of USD37.6 bn. Growth will be derived from increasing output of both industrial and precious metals, including coal, copper, gold and iron ore, which together account for the bulk of the value of Kazakhstan's mining industry. We forecast copper output to grow the fastest in percentage terms through 2018.

Kazakhstan has one of the richest mineral reserves in the world, and is in the top ten in size for a number of major minerals. It has the potential to overtake current major mineral producers but needs substantial investment from foreign companies which have the necessary capital and technology to develop its deposits. Poor infrastructure remains one of the main obstacles for the long-term growth of Kazakhstan's mining sector. While the country boasts adequate infrastructure in urban regions, many new and planned projects are far from the main cities or transport routes, with poor access to roads and power sources. 

Mining Industry To Grow Alongside Broader Extractive Sector
Kazakhstan - Mining Sector Value & Growth

Despite a myriad of challenges, we expect both domestic and foreign players to be lured by the country's mineral wealth and improving business environment, enabling consistent industry growth. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), total fixed capital investment in Kazakhstan's mining sector totalled USD10.9bn in 2011, while total investment in the metallurgy sector came to USD1.7bn. Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country's mining sector totalled USD1.4bn in 2011, while FDI into the non-ferrous and ferrous metallurgy sectors totalled USD 1.5bn and USD1.0bn, respectively.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Coal: Domestic Power Demand To Drive Production Growth
10
Country's Energy Needs Reliant On Coal
10
Industry Set To Expand Through Decade
11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2010-2018)
12
Iron Ore: Challenges Keep Growth Subdued
13
State-Owned Firm Drives Industry
14
Table: Kazakhstan - Largest Iron Ore Projects
14
Risks To Outlook
14
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2010-2018)
15
Copper: Industry Due For Revival
15
Table: Top Copper Projects
17
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2010-2018)
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Rewards
19
Industry Rewards
19
Country Rewards
19
Risks
20
Industry Risks
20
Country Risks
20
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2010-2018)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind
23
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter
24
Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board
25
Regulatory Development
26
Table: Kazakhstan - Applicable Mineral Extraction Taxes
27
Table: Kazakhstan - Political Overview
29
Table: Mining Regulation Index
30
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy
31
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
31
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
33
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
34
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
35
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
36
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
37
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Competitive Landscape
42
Table: Kazakhstan - Country Reserves Relative To Global Reserves
42
Table: Kazakhstan - Comparative Valuation Metrics
43
Company Profile
44
Kazakhmys
44
Table: Kazakhmys - Financial Results
47
ENRC
48
Table: ENRC - Financial Results
49
Regional Overview
50
Europe Overview
50
1
50
2
52
3
54
Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook
54
4
55
5
56
Global Industry Overview
57
Challenges
57
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
61
Cause For Optimism
64
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Kazakhstan Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Kazakhstan Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Kazakhstan.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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